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Strategies & Market Trends : Bob Brinker: Market Savant & Radio Host -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: fahrenheit451 who wrote (23036)	8/4/2006 12:18:08 PM
From: Scales off	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 42834

What you say is the key to the fallacy that Bob can produce what he claims, the ability to accurately predict the stock market. What is even more ridiculous is to claim that he can predict the market in the long term better than he can predict the market over the short term. Watching the Fed watchers and the Fed governors themselves, it is clear that they do not know what the economy is going to be like in the long term or even next quarter. Nobody would take them seriously if they predicted the level of the stock market three months, six months or a year out. For the same reason nobody should take Bob so seriously. He's a great salesman and has a good voice on the radio. Enjoy the entertainment, but ignore his claims. If one hides a material call in their record, they are likely not someone you would ever want to trust with your money.

To: fahrenheit451 who wrote (23036)	8/4/2006 12:29:17 PM
From: pigstuff	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 42834

Do you think Bob Brinker is honest and trustworthy? If NOONE can predict the market successfully, long or short term, why does he advertise that he can? Is there a reason that the people (commonly known as shills) who defend him the most are the ones that do not buy his newsletter, or did not follow his recommendations 100%. How does a charlatan get so much credit for stuff that he doesn't even recommend? Of course, they won't answer........ I'll be shocked if they answer........ Boy, did that sorry line get put into its' place yesterday!

To: fahrenheit451 who wrote (23036)	8/4/2006 7:42:48 PM
From: dijaexyahoo	Respond to of 42834

>>>True. Can any model predict unforeseen events? fahrenheit responded: <<No, and that is the point I was trying to make to people who put faith in models.>> --People like brinker and me had 2 choices in 1999-2000--forget models, and just ride out the bear we "knew" was coming, or use models to help us try to get out early. While models cannot see every eventuality, I think brinker's models did pretty good in 2000 and 2003. I never for a moment expected them to be perfect, or even close to perfect. I just hoped Bob and his model could help me avoid a big bear. <<Now you are getting to the major issue. I would expect a professional trader to see what was happening in the market as a result of the election problem and realize that his initial analysis had been overtaken by this unforeseen event and close out the trade to cut his losses. Brinker should have reached this conclusion some at time in the 30 day period following election day.>> --I don't think this is realistic, except in hindsight. By the time anyone realized the election turmoil was hurting the stock market, it was already priced in. I'm still not sure the election was what caused the market to drop. It certainly was not the only thing. I suspect Navalier made his comments AFTER THE FACT. Do you KNOW when he made them?

To: fahrenheit451 who wrote (23036)	8/4/2006 11:17:29 PM
From: Math Junkie	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 42834

"Now you are getting to the major issue. I would expect a professional trader to see what was happening in the market as a result of the election problem and realize that his initial analysis had been overtaken by this unforeseen event and close out the trade to cut his losses. Brinker should have reached this conclusion some at time in the 30 day period following election day. The thing I find interesting is that some of his subscribers did just that while he acted like a deer caught in the headlights." Excellent point, and it also shows why Brinker was right to get out of the business of attempting short term trades.