SI
SI
discoversearch

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor.  We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community.  If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.
Gold/Mining/Energy : Gold and Silver Juniors, Mid-tiers and Producers -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Claude Cormier who wrote (17607)8/4/2006 7:23:27 PM
From: Metacomet  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 78416
 
As I suffer thru the Mongolian political horror affecting my major position in Entree, I have resolved to buy nothing outside of North America for now.....



To: Claude Cormier who wrote (17607)8/6/2006 7:53:45 PM
From: Mr. Aloha  Respond to of 78416
 
Yes, I took a quick look at DNT's Canariaco for a comparison:

In the July, 2006, edition of the Gold Newsletter, Brien Lundin refreshes his buy recommendation for Candente Resource Corp., as the market still needs to digest the results of the scoping study on the Canariaco Norte deposit in Peru. Mr. Lundin said buy Candente, now trading at 90 cents, at 36 cents in November, 2002, at 69 cents in March, 2003, and at 88 cents in April, 2006. An investment of $1,000 each time would now be worth $4,705.20. Mr. Lundin feels vindicated by the new scoping study numbers, which determined Canariaco has an inferred potentially open-pittable resource of 489 million tonnes. Mr. Lundin says the study is preliminary and the resources are inferred, so readers should be cautious. However, assuming a copper price of $2 (U.S.) per pound and an 8-per-cent discount rate, the consultants project a total cash flow of $1.9-billion (U.S.) from the mining operation. This translates into a net present value of $595-million (U.S.). With a more conservative $1.50 (U.S.) copper price, the NPV dips to $299-million, which is still over five times the company's market cap. The report only resulted in a 14-per-cent gain in the company's share price -- far too little, says Mr. Lundin. Fellow newsletter writer Jay Taylor was the early bird on Candente, telling readers to buy at 11 cents on Jan. 26, 2002.

Using the tables on page 6 of Copper Fox's April letter to shareholders (http://www.copperfoxmetals.com/graphics/investor_2005_Sharehloders.pdf ), you can see that their Schaft Creek numbers are far better than the DNT numbers, and they're based on measured and indicated resources, not inferred as DNT's are. If you include inferred resources, Schaft Creek's total resources more than quadruple.

Using the same $2 copper and 8% discount rate, Schaft Creek's NPV is more than double that of DNT, at over $1.2 billion, even using the more conservative capex estimate (using $500 gold and $8 silver). Even using $1 copper, Schaft Creek's NPV is nearly double DNT's NPV using $1.50 copper.

If DNT, with a bigger market cap than Copper Fox's, is a buy here with a far inferior deposit in riskier Peru vs. Schaft Creek's hot area next to NovaGold's Galore Creek in safe Canada, then what does that mean for Copper Fox?

Copper Fox does, indeed, look very cheap.