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Strategies & Market Trends : Bob Brinker: Market Savant & Radio Host -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: yaetmo who wrote (23119)	8/5/2006 7:39:24 PM
From: Honey_Bee	Respond to of 42834

You are correct, Yaetmo. Brinker finally began to suspect that a "secular bear market" had begun by May 2001. At that time, he had his equity allocation down to 35%, but he had recommended that 20-50% of the 65% cash reserves be put back into the riskiest sector of the stock market. Doesn't make much sense, does it? This is from Honey's Bob Brinker Beehive Buzz at Suite 101: investment.suite101.com In the May 7, 2001 Marketimer, Bob Brinker laid out the case that a possible "secular bear market" may have begun, but admitted that "it is too early to say definitely based on the evidence at hand." He explained that the only way to make money during secular bear markets was "...identification of cyclical bull market opportunities...." And he said, "We will continue our effort to identify the next major stock market buy opportunity." He advised subscribers to hold remaining "cash reserves" from his January 2000 sell-signal in quality money funds. . In spite of these views, Brinker recommended no change in QQQQ holdings and said that he believed the Nasdaq "has the potential to recover further in the months ahead." .

To: yaetmo who wrote (23119)	8/5/2006 7:40:44 PM
From: Kirk ©	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 42834

You are correct! I believe a caller cornered him with a question about how he voted in the II survey. I think the caller prefaced it by saying Bob used to say all those who voted "correction" were "clueless" so Bob had to say Bull or Bear. Bob said in a lowered voice that he voted as a bear. Up until then, Bob was not talking about how he was a member of the unwashed "wishy washie" 60:40 club. "The Marketimer stock market timing model remains cautious as the second quarter gets underway." Robert Brinker - April 2000 issue of “Marketimer” It would be interesting to read old MTs to see when he first started to say his model was "bearish" rather than "cautious." I bet the market was already down quite a bit. FWIW, I think he is lying now when he says his model went bearish in January 2000. Clearly in April 2000 he said it was cautious, not bearish. I believe his model NEVER went bearish because the bear market was really a correction in the over valued large cap stocks while the broader market actually bottomed in 1998. His 5 root causes for a bear market said "BEAR" but his model was still only cautious hence we got the 60:40 call.

To: yaetmo who wrote (23119)	8/6/2006 3:50:22 AM
From: Math Junkie	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 42834

"As I remember, Bob did not use the term bear until well into 2001." That's not correct. I have the August 2000 Marketimer in front of me, and it says "The Marketimer stock market timing model remains bearish as it has been since January of this year." I believe that is the first time he said in print that his model was bearish. In the previous January, he said it had turned "unfavorable." "Would he have sent out the special QQQ bulletin if he thought there was a bear around the next corner." I don't know what he thought, but please explain why he called the QQQ prediction a counter-trend rally.