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Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Don Earl who wrote (59203)	8/5/2006 9:11:37 PM
From: Moominoid	Respond to of 306849

At this stage it depends where you are in the country how the housing market is doing. You say on your profile that you are in the NW and in Seattle-Tacoma for example prices have soared in the last year and still seem to be rising. Haven't checked other markets. There isn't a nationwide housing slump. In a country the size of the US it is hard for that to ever happen I think. Some indicators show national average prices rising still but at a much slower pace than recent years. Some markets are showing, however, strong signs of stagnation and/or decline.

To: Don Earl who wrote (59203)	8/5/2006 9:59:32 PM
From: XoFruitCake	Respond to of 306849

Heh heh, Don. My congratulation is in order for someone who did take advantage of the real estate market for the last few years. What you say is completely again economic 101 but yet since you have first hand experience on it. I respect your view. Good luck in finding a cheap lot. Every HB are walking away from some land option in last quarter. There should be cheap lot available in the next year or so and may be you can hire a crew of 4-6 and make a small subdivision out in PNW.

To: Don Earl who wrote (59203)	8/7/2006 1:13:28 PM
From: John Vosilla	Respond to of 306849

<<I was trying to point out that a big part of the bubble hype had more to do with rising costs than bubble economics.>> I agree with that but a point I always try to hammer is the national builders can build at way below what it costs the little guy. This will destroy everyone competing against them this next downturn in areas where production home development can continue unabated. <<If I was twenty years younger, I'd probably consider jumping through the hoops to get a contractor's license, and look for an area with cheap lots where I could knock out a bunch of 1200 sf two bedroom one bath shacks. One guy could whip something like that out in 6-8 months and you could cut that in half with a partner.>> So it would make sense for someone capable of buying into strong growing markets like Houston or Dallas to buy the cookie cutter homes at $50-70 psf knowing full well once all the large parcels of land in an area are built on by the national builders that no one will be able to put up a spec house at anywhere near $100 psf? I too believe we are in reflation and costs of construction will continue upward only to be temporarily capped by recession.