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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Nadine Carroll who wrote (195432)	8/7/2006 1:37:35 AM
From: Bilow	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 281500

Hi Nadine Carroll; Re: "What they are not okay with is the idea that they should go back to the status quo ante, where Hizbullah ran all non-supporters out of South Lebanon, and launched rockets at Israel from inside UN bases with impunity." The basic problem for Israel is that the situation has been steadily worsening for decades. Israel cannot return to "status quo ante" because as time goes on, the status quo of yesterday becomes an impossible dream. In this latest round of slapping, Hezbollah is using unguided missiles. Despite these being so inaccurate that it takes something like 100 of them to kill one civilian, north Israel has been shut down. But what about the next one? Slap fights sometimes progress to real war. What if Israel gets into a real war? Look at the military progression. Weapons get smaller, harder to find, more deadly, and most importantly, smarter. What will Israel do 10 years from now when the Hezbollah is armed with cruise missiles instead of unguided rockets? You can talk about threatening to escalate to nuclear weapons but all indications are that Iran is building her own and you really don't want to go there. As far as the horrors of modern war go, the state of Israel still has its virginity. Many European capitals were bombed flat during WW2. Britain had 43,000 civilian deaths during the Blitz, and they *won* the war. This is most of the reason Europe has been so peaceful since the end of the war. They know what war is about. Tel Aviv has hundreds of skyscrapers. Think back to the invasion of Iraq. Do you remember the cruise missiles destroying large Iraqi government buildings in downtown Baghdad? What targets do you think Hezbollah would pick in Tel Aviv? In Jerusalem? Israel's problem is one of extreme overconfidence caused by a combination of religious blindness and the fact that they have a history of success in war. In other words, the overconfidence comes from a concentration on things as they were in the past. -- Carl P.S. Before you assume that Israel will never have to face cruise missiles you should read this link: ... The Babur, which has near stealth capabilities, is a low-flying, terrain-hugging missile with high maneuverability, pinpoint accuracy and radar avoidance features. With a range of 500 kilometers, it can carry all types of warheads. Pakistan President General Pervez Musharraf, who witnessed the test-fire, said that the nation was proud of its scientists and engineers, who had once again demonstrated their ability to master rare technologies with ease and professionalism. ... globalsecurity.org The range was 500 km. Now exactly how far is it from south Lebanon to Tel Aviv?