Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Road Walker who wrote (298629)	8/7/2006 3:42:31 PM
From: tejek	Respond to of 1576823

Even optimists generally concede that the housing boom must eventually end, and that consumers will eventually have to start saving again. But the conventional wisdom was that housing would have a “soft landing” — that the boom would taper off gradually, and that other sources of growth would take its place. You might say that the theory was that business investment and exports would stand up as housing stood down. You know this is a tough one. With any recession or expansion, psychology plays a big role. And I think the psychology has been negative since 2000 even as the economy stopped pulling back and began to grow again. For an example, I have never felt that we were out of recession even as the stock market did better. So I eagerly took my profits and would expand my participation always tentatively. Its hard to feel good about anything.......you never know when the plug will be pulled. Right now, the housing market is making a soft landing. In fact, the housing stocks are trying very hard to start the recovery process even as they get downgraded. However, that soft landing is fairly uneven. I think the housing markets most in danger are Miami and maybe the west coast of FLA, south of Tampa. If FLA gets even one hurricane hit this year, I think sales will plummet in West FLA. As for Miami, the condo market is so overbuilt it will take years before the overhang is eaten up. However, in markets like LA, or NYC or Boston and even S.Diego housing production is so light that those markets will only feel some pain temporarily. And then there are markets like Seattle and Portland, OR that are just starting to take off. That's why I continue to believe in the soft landing thesis. As far as businesses expanding.....building new offices and factories.....that is happening more than before.......but not nearly like it was in the 1990s. I own some stocks that are active in the non residential markets and they reported some nice earnings this past quarter. But all of this growth is a pale shadow to what went on ten years ago. And can you blame CEOs? First there was 9/11 and now there is all this crazy stuff in Iraq, Afghanistan and Lebanon. They are no fools. They may have voted for Bush but they know instability when they see it. These are crazy times......you don't expand your business during crazy times.