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Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: GST who wrote (59276)	8/7/2006 9:21:24 AM
From: Tommaso	Respond to of 306849

>>>Define a "severe recession".<<< When you have lost your job, and I am afraid that I might lose mine.

To: GST who wrote (59276)	8/7/2006 2:32:10 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 306849

Unemployment soars to 12% or so. Perhaps they only report 8.5% of it. Right now it is about 8.5% but they report 4.8% of it. Home prices give up 100% of their gains of the last 5 years. Condos do the same and then some. It lasts for a year or longer in spite of any Fed pumping. As soon as the Fed stops cutting we slide back into a recession. People willing to take any job they can get, even at walmart. Prices on all kinds of goods and services drops. General malaise goes on for years as we dip in and out of duoble and triple dip recessions. The value of commercial real estate plunges. Stock markets fall by 40% or so over the course of 3-5 years. Bankruptcies soar. Interest rates fall offering some relief to those in debt. It will not necessarily take all of thst but I expect most of that will happen. Over a lengthy period of time (anywhere from 3-10 years). But I do not expect massive bank failures, most will have some sort of job even if it does not pay well. The more the Fed fights it though, the longer it will last. Mish