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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: sylvester80 who wrote (195855)	8/7/2006 8:09:31 PM
From: neolib	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 281500

I don't think there is anywhere near 10K actually fighting. The number of troops actually in Lebanon is much smaller?? However, Hezbullah is doing much better than I would have thought, largely I think due to better anti-armor success. I have pointed out before that improved anti-armor and anti-aircraft methods are relatively cheap, and could radically alter the balance of power in the asymmetric ME wars. Planes and tanks are very expensive. They are also pretty much useless if the other side has good counter measures. Further, the other side does not need planes and tanks of their own, since they are not invading, but merely trying to resist invasion. Insurgents with good anti-armor and anti-aircraft measures become much more dangerous. This is something that I assume the US Brass are currently gaming, at least I hope so.

To: sylvester80 who wrote (195855)	8/7/2006 8:13:17 PM
From: TimF	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 281500

Israel isn't claiming that Hezbollah has just a few hundred fighters. It has thousands. Israel is too open, and too attuned to the deaths of its soldiers, for any lie about the number of their deaths to stand more than a very short time and the Israeli government realizes this. Unless they are going to quickly get massive gains from under or over-reporting their deaths they have no incentive to do so because the word will get out soon, and would the lies would have a large negative political impact on the Israeli government. Hammas' leaders don't have to stand for re-election. Israel's do. I'm more likely to believe that the IDF is getting their butt kicked Very unlikely considering the history of Israel fighting the Arabs, and even guerrilla forces, and considering the resources both sides have. Even if you discount all Israeli statements to the point where you consider them to be worthless there is no reason to think the IDF is getting its butt kicked.