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Pastimes : Boxing: The Sweet Science -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Bwe who wrote (10313)8/12/2006 8:03:34 PM
From: LPS5  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 10489
 
Really quickly, I'll take Rahman to defeat Maskaev in the fight tonight. Although Maskaev was victorious in their last outing - in 1999 - the two fighters' paths have diverged widely since then.

After KO'ing Rahman (and knocking him through the ropes, which is sure to be shown many times before the main event tonight), Maskaev developed a glass jaw, was brutally knocked out three fights in a row, and was advised to leave the sport entirely. Rather, he kept fighting and since then has worked his back way up by fighting carefully picked, low quality opponents. That ultimately led to his title eliminator vs. slippery-but-safe Turkish champion Sinan Samil Sam, which in turn led to what will probably be his last title shot tonight.

Rahman, on the other hand, bounced back from the loss to Maskaev to KO Lennox Lewis, then gave that belt back in the rematch. Since then, he has stayed near the top of the division, fighting lackadaisically and to mixed effect among a number of quality opponents: he looked unconvincing, even lazy, in draws against Ruiz and Toney; looked terrific in his TKO win against Kali Meehan; and looked awful to lose by TKO against the aging Evander Holyfield.

So, in short, we've got a guy who was at the top, fell to the bottom, and then crawled back to the top of the hill carefully against low quality opponents. On the other hand, we have a current champion who was at the bottom, rose quickly to the top, and has been treading water at that level, somewhat lamely, for years.

Like all fighters with glass jaws or weak hands, Maskaev's chin is weak, and that's a physical dimension that, unfortunately, doesn't go away with experience or training; complementing that, and whether he uses it or not, Rahman's right hand is among the best in the division when he lets it go.

Maskaev will have to get inside to hurt Rahman, which requires taking chances - slipping the jabs, taking the half-step back, and counterpunching. I expect that both the motivation of fighting for the heavyweight championship and his 1999 win over Rahman will encourage him to do so.

Ultimately the question comes down to the following: which Hasim Rahman will show up tonight? The Rahman who knocked out Lennox Lewis in Africa, hammered Kali Meehan, and bested David Tua in their rematch...or the Rahman who clinched his way to lame outcomes against John Ruiz and James Toney?

Whoever shows up in Rahman's corner, he's fought the better competition, been tested more times, and spent time with that belt wrapped around his waist while Maskaev negotiated a winding but mostly low-risk path to this point.

I'll take Rahman to win; moreover, I'll take Rahman to win by KO, betting that at least one of his big shots will find the mark and send Oleg to the canvas, probably for the last time in his career.

e