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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Tommaso who wrote (67932)	8/10/2006 12:22:51 PM
From: GST	Respond to of 110194

<General deflation is extremely unlikely. Loss of purchasing power of the dollar is extremely likely.> Exactly -- and a slowing economy seems likely as well. Stagflation.

To: Tommaso who wrote (67932)	8/10/2006 1:17:16 PM
From: John Vosilla	Respond to of 110194

'Some decline in house prices is possible and, I think, likely. General deflation is extremely unlikely. Loss of purchasing power of the dollar is extremely likely.' Way too much effort is being spent on the collapse of the coastal housing bubble and extrapolating some deflationary debt cleansing period as the end game. I see areas of FL now down 15-20% easy and little really has changed around me yet other than the speculators and those tied to the ponzi scheme hurting a lot. It will be a bit different than any prior mania where lots of people get hurt because it effects much more of the general population directly with a multiplier effect in local areas. We shall see how it plays out in 6-9 months but I somehow doubt price levels of rents, insurance, food, energy, education, transportation, medical, utilities or travel on a national level are effected much by this. Discretionary spending and anything tied to home building and lending take a big hit for sure.