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Biotech / Medical : Biotech Valuation -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: dr.praveen who wrote (20801)8/10/2006 4:05:23 PM
From: rkrw  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 52153
 
I think the market has a tough time valuing them. The market has a tough time valuing biotechs in general especially before they make a positive eps. Factor in a company wildly ambitious like exel, with the confusing to some gsk relationship, the Symphony Capital arrangement and it's a mess.

What do they have 12 drugs in the clinic and by next year 15? I think they're undervalued, definitely when looking at the long term, but when they're going to continue to lose huge amounts of money for the foreseeable future I don't think there will be any rush to buy the stock until some of the 15 shows super compelling data. I think they'll have their day in the sun just not sure it will be this year :-)

As an alternative to exel, I like arry, a little more contained development, i.e a couple new ind's per year versus 5-6, a lot simpler capital structure to understand and most important some targeted cancer drugs that could be of great value, in particular a fast follower to gsk's tykerb.



To: dr.praveen who wrote (20801)8/11/2006 5:17:06 AM
From: mopgcw  Respond to of 52153
 
I think rk has it on the money, too complicated to garner much of a premium at this early stage. I like the stock below $7 as a no-brainer LT hold + a ST trade the $7 to $10 bounce.

p2 results not due to end of this year, then possibly some news from GSK. LOTS of early stage stuff, but something to move the stock near term seems remote here. they have 1.5-2 yrs of cash left, so it will be an interesting ride to see what gsk does.