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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: CalculatedRisk who wrote (68030)	8/11/2006 7:51:16 AM
From: redfrecknj	Respond to of 110194

What I see in Month End Fed Funds ..actual trading results in '99-'00. Increases of 23, 8, 15, 22, 15, 28, 12, 17, 25 and 26 basis points, and DECREASES of 2 and 12 basis points over the relevant period. A total change of just 164 basis points net. The conventions adopted during that period are a challenge to interpret now. When the Fed raised between meetings, one of two things happened. If they raised thirty days or more before the meeting they often issued an interim statement accompanying the raise. And when they did so they didn't credit the raise to the subsequent meeting, instead indicating no action. When they raised closer to the meeting they waited for the meeting statement to (re)announce the raise. Since none of those interim statements are shown on the portion of the website you found, I cannot verify when they were used and when they weren't. What I can tell you is those who tally Fed raises credit the subsequent meeting for an interim raise when determining whether a pause occurred. BTW, the Fed has MANY times paused during lowering of rates, then resumed. My view now is that the Fed is done.