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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TobagoJack who wrote (8160)	8/11/2006 4:24:46 AM
From: Hawkmoon	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 217736

What do I think? I think he's being naive. For one.. Yes, Shi'a dominate Iraq. But what's the difference between Iranian Shi'a, and an Iraqi Shi'a?? The Iranian is most likely Persian, and the Iraqi is most likely Arab. So yeah.. they share the same faith, but this does not signify that Iraqi Arabs are going to just permit themselves to be dominated by Persian Iran. There's just too much "history" between them to see this. Thus, Ahmadinejad has an interest in perpetuating instability in Iraq. He has an interest in making the current Shi'a government dependent upon him against the Sunnis, who seem to keep blowing themselves up near Shi'a mosques. The ironic thing is that Ahmadinejad has been harboring numerous Al Qai'da leaders, including Osama Bin Laden's son, Sa'ad, who apparently has recently been "released" (as if he was ever under arrest) to go to Lebanon to assist Hizbullah. The reality, IMO, is that Ahmadinejad, and his IRGC thugs, is playing a very Machiavellian game. I had reason to believe he was supporting both sides of the Iraqi insurgency.. Muqtada Al Sadr on one side, and Zarqawi's group on the other. But certainly any support to Sunni extremist groups was kept very secret and via "cut-outs". And why would he do this? Because he's a Persian, and he's willing to sacrifice a few Iraqi Shi'ite ARABS if it furthers his agenda and forces the current government to look to his regime for assistance. He can pressure the government via two different mechanisms.. The Sunni suicide bombers, and Muqtada Al Sadr's Mahdi Militia. One further point that the author is seriously naive about is Ahmadinejad's personality. This guy is a serious psychopath (if not a sociopath). During the Iran-Iraq war he was in charge of the Basij, the Iranian equivalent of the Hitler Youth, in which he was responsible for recruiting and deploying hundreds of thousands of child martyrs to be human minesweepers in Iraq. This guy can not be rationally dealt with and any belief that he'd be willing to act as a force of stabilization in the region is a delusion. He has stated that he believes the Mahdi will return in his lifetime and it is his responsibility to pave the way for his return. If you're unfamiliar with Mahdist theology, here's a link: The name Jaysh al-Mahdi has apocalyptic connotations to a Muslim's ear: in Islamic theology, the Mah'di is an end-times figure who it is said will assist the Masih to destroy the Dajjal and establish a global Islamic khilafah in preparation for the Yaum al-Qiyamah; in more familiar terms, it is believed that the Mahdi will come to help the Messiah (i.e., Jesus, referred to in Islam as `Isa ibn Mariyam) to defeat the Antichrist (literally, al-Masih al-Dajjal means "the Deceiving Messiah"), before establishing a just Islamic social order in preparation for Judgement Day. In the Twelver school of Shi`ite Islam, the Mahdi is believed to have been an historical figure identified with the Twelfth Imam, Muhammad al-Mahdi, and is therefore called al-Imam al-Mahdi. It is believed that he is still present on earth "in occultation" (i.e., hidden), and will emerge again in the end times. Those Shi`ites of this school believe that the Imam Mahdi is the rightful ruler of the whole Islamic community (ummah) at any given time, and he is therefore also called Imam al-Zaman, meaning "Imam of the Age." en.wikipedia.org Thus, Ahmadinejad's whole "raison d'etre" is not stability, but ushering in the return of the Mahdi and fighting the Apocaplyse. Thus, this is even more reason why Hizbullah must be destroyed (by whoever gets around to it). It will spell a grievous defeat for Ahmadinejad and his Jihadist movement and could spark internal dissidence from young Iranians who see him spending billions of dollars that could be better spent at home, to arm losers. Either way.. I really don't think he can be dealt with, except from a position of strength. Hawk