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To: HerbVic who wrote (55695)	8/11/2006 10:34:47 AM
From: Lizzie Tudor	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 213176

I agree with you almost completely. I would prefer higher rates lest the dollar completely collapse. The dollar is the key here. It has collapsed, and we have inflation. I don't think stocks are expensive though. But the problem as I see it is a supply/demand problem. People don't want stocks, and with the anemic jobs climate with wage deflation especially white collar jobs, which is where demand for stocks came from, there won't be a bull market for years. I fully expect 70s level valuations or close. edit- this options stuff is becoming so pervasive its a big YAWN

To: HerbVic who wrote (55695)	8/11/2006 2:08:30 PM
From: Doren	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 213176

We had a discussion about this awhile back and I predicted at that time the Fed would boost interest modestly which they did but then nothing until after the election. No way will they raise again before the election is over. They have to pay for the war somehow. They COULD raise taxes drastically. That means higher interest rates and deflating the dollar. The war affects everything we try to build in this country sucking talented engineers out of the consumer products sector and into the defense sector. That enables Japan and the other industrial countries to build better cheaper products.

To: HerbVic who wrote (55695)	8/11/2006 8:16:45 PM
From: David Bogdanoff	Respond to of 213176

My question was motivated by the Hussman criterion for stock market underperformance, i.e. richly valued stocks and rising interest rates. Most pundits I see on cnbc or bloomberg do not see stocks as richly valued now and they typically use the p/e to base this on. so at least one of Hussman's criteria is not met. The other , rising rates, is less clear; some think we are done, others see one or two more hikes coming. The current fed rate is seen as high enough to slow the economy (and maybe inflation), and others even see a recession coming, but it is not clear as too whether rates are still rising. Indeed, some pundits even see rates lowered in as little as 6 m. if it is seen that the economy is slowing too much. This is not my opinion, but my recollection of what I've seen on the finance/investment channels. Bogtalk