Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TobagoJack who wrote (8199)	8/12/2006 12:29:01 AM
From: Hawkmoon	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 217752

As matters turned out, you are talking about T-bills! Of course I am TJ!! Because isn't that the measure of the condition of the US economy versus inflation? I mean, if there were a chance of major inflation, then the US T-bills should be demanding a much higher yield than they currently are. As for outflows of investment, My GOD man.. the US constitutes 30% of the global economy!!! OF COURSE SOME OF THAT MONEY is going to be invested overseas. Those are the speculative markets where the risk/reward equation is greatest. China has a long way to go before it ever comes close to constituting 30% of the global economy. And let's China grows its slightly less than $2 Trillion GDP by 10% per year. That's $200 Billion in growth per year. But compared to the $11 TRILLION US economy, growing at 3% per annum adds $330 Billion in GDP according to my figures, or $130 Billion MORE than China's growth. And you can't tell me that if the US economy goes into recession that it won't have a TREMENDOUS impact upon Chinese growth. So am I worried about some capital outflows from the US for the purpose of investing in China? Hell no. If anything, those US companies will eventually repatriot a good percentage of those profits back into the US. You may think its a "moral hazard" and consider the US an "emergency room patient", but I think it makes perfect sense that global capital markets might look to Asia for speculative investment, while relying upon the US for a safe haven and a decent interest return. Can it go on forever? Who's to say? I would hope not, because eventually this "beggar thy neighbor" export but don't import strategy is going to politically backfire and create tremendous tensions. I'm happy that the Chinese people are FINALLY enjoying economic properity (or at least some of them). I don't believe in "zero-sum" economics where someone has to win and someone has to lose. But I wish that economic success was coming as a matter of internally driven growth not so dependent upon exports to the more developed economies. And I wish they had some political freedom that would hold their government accountable to not doing something stupid that they might jeopardize their prosperity.. And something else.. I wish Bejing would get their little megalomanical surrogate, Kim Jong Il, to straighten up and behave. I also would like them to stop the bluster and ranting over Taiwan. If those people want to remain separate from China, then Bejing should be "big enough" not to give a rat's @ss about it. Hawk