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Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: patron_anejo_por_favor who wrote (59924)	8/14/2006 7:09:03 PM
From: XBrit	Respond to of 306849

Shorted CFC and NEW at Schwab today, around 1:30pm EDT. No problem getting the borrow.

To: patron_anejo_por_favor who wrote (59924)	8/15/2006 1:09:48 AM
From: Schnullie	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 306849

when I tried to short NFI and NEW I believe the LLLs finally cracked a short time ago and am always looking for new housing-related stocks to short. However, why short NEW at this point? 25% of the float is already shorted, its already taken a leisurely 20% drop, it has a forward P/E of 5-6 and.............it pays an 18% divie(!) Not only that, it has a 3-yr history of steadily increasing dividends, right up through June 2006. I realize all of these metrics could have (and were) applied to the builders over the past year, except the steadily decreasing dividend. The scent of that divie could keep a lot of people in the game. Of course, that cuts both ways....if they threaten to cut it, the stock goes down hard. Is there any evidence that they won't be able to pay out the dividend anytime soon?

To: patron_anejo_por_favor who wrote (59924)	8/15/2006 3:01:04 AM
From: CalculatedRisk	Respond to of 306849

Professor Thornberg: Hard Landing Coming This is interesting. Dr. Thornberg has left the Anderson Forecast and can now speak his mind ... Real Estate Economist Leaves UCLA Forecast latimes.com Excerpts: Thornberg said his expectations are growing more gloomy. "My guess is we're going to have a hard landing," he said. "It's ugly out there." There has been large-scale overbuilding of homes and condominiums nationwide, he said. "And here in Southern California we have had this massive price appreciation that is just not justifiable by any kind of standards of reasonable economics," he said. Although home prices in most Southern California markets are still higher than they were a year ago, "there has been no appreciation for four or five months," Thornberg said. With interest rates rising in recent months and sales declining, "the bubble is popping, just like a bubble is supposed to," he said. In a soft landing, prices would level out and economic growth would be flat or slow while adjusting to the loss of jobs and spending in the construction, real estate and mortgage industries. A hard landing could come if housing prices begin to fall, Thornberg said, in large part because that would scare consumers accustomed to watching their net worth rise on paper. Their spending pullback and a corresponding drop in construction could push the economy into recession.