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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: orkrious who wrote (68260)	8/15/2006 12:12:12 AM
From: ild	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

I have all my miners, but I've sold calls on many (HMY, GFI, GSS, BGO). I have massive poot position on XLF and XLY, so if the market tanks I'll come out OK. This clown think everything will plunge. truecontrarian.com EDIT: I think it's absolute consensus that we'll go down till end of October, then we'll rally. Usually I fade an absolute consensus but this time I'm aligned with it and this makes me very nervous. -g/ng- EDIT: BGO came out with good numbers. I wish I didn't sell the calls.

To: orkrious who wrote (68260)	8/15/2006 12:20:44 AM
From: ild	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 110194

Schaeffer's Media Outtakes: Market in a Coma What it Will Take to Spur Market Movement By Bernie Schaeffer 8/14/2006 2:35 PM ET schaeffersresearch.com Schaeffer's Media Outtakes: Metals in the Top of the Ninth? Are Energy and Precious Metals a Risky Investment? By Bernie Schaeffer 8/14/2006 9:16 AM ET schaeffersresearch.com

To: orkrious who wrote (68260)	8/15/2006 11:57:25 AM
From: ild	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

@pm sentiment -- trotsky, 11:02:34 08/15/06 Tue yesterday's decline has driven bearish sentiment close to a new extreme in terms of the Rydex pm fund cash flow ratio. there was an outflow of $6.7 m. yesterday alone, which has put the CF ratio right back to its recent lows (which in turn are identical with the July 2003 levels). in XAU options, yesterday's volume put/call ratio clocked in at 2.18, with a massive 11,517 puts traded, pushing the p/c OI ratio back up from 1,00 to 1,05 (iow., a bunch of those puts translated into fresh OI). on the anecdotal front, i got an e-mail today informing me that a long term bull who had been in the market for years sold everything yesterday. Bernie Schaeffer meanwhile penned a bearish assessment, inter alia based on Fred Hickey saying in Barron's that he likes silver. (Hickey: "'There are only a small number of silver mines that are not in unstable parts of the world,' says Fred Hickey, editor of the High-Tech Strategist and a member of the Barron's Roundtable. Hickey, who's partial to gold and silver, likes the silver ETF, which trades around $125 a share". Shaeffer: "...one could certainly argue that the appearance of such a stone-cold bullish mainstream media piece on a non-traditional asset that was shunned for two decades is certainly a cause for contrarians to take notice." Trotsky: i don't recall gold or silver being on the cover of Barron's. Fred Hickey of all people - the perennial tech bear, and long time pm bull, hardly represents Barron's opinion). what's so astonishing about all of this is that the XAU trades at around 140 at the same time. you'd expect sentiment to turn sour if it broke any long term uptrend lines, or if it were at least in some sort of clear short term down trend. neither is the case. it's of course possible that all of this will happen, but i've never seen it happen when sentiment was ALREADY in the dumps. at a similar juncture in 2004 (similar insofar as the XAU had at the time only corrected a little bit), the bulls pounced on me in defence of the bullish case when i mentioned that the quantitative sentiment and money flow backdrop looked dangerous at the time. in any event, the situation is certainly not a slam dunk (it never is) - technically things look ambiguous and could go either way in the short term (we're close to a triangle apex in gold), but the fact remains that the data point to a lot of money being sidelined at the moment (this btw. also holds for the broader stock market, where bearish sentiment is also quite intense, with Rydex bear assets close to a record high).