No sure thing: Despite terrific start, Detroit far from postseason lock
sportsillustrated.cnn.com
Posted: Tuesday August 15, 2006 2:31PM
It's safe to say that with the possible exception of Tom Selleck, nobody saw the Tigers' improbable dominance this year coming. Out of the depths of several years of being sports-page punchlines, Jim Leyland somehow managed to turn the Tigers into a juggernaut anchored by a solid young pitching staff and an offense that could get hot when it needed to. Still, as good as they looked in April, we were waiting for the other cleat to drop. Chris Shelton probably wasn't going to keep up his 200-home run pace, and these rookies would start to falter. Surely, the Tigers couldn't dominate for an entire season.
Halfway through August, they're still holding it together. Entering Tuesday, Detroit has a five-and-a-half game lead in the AL Central and seem to be a lock to make the playoffs. At this point, they've proven to everyone they're not going to blow it, right? Maybe. They're not in trouble yet, and the chances are, they'll leg it out. However, Detroit fans have to feel just a little uneasy and not quite secure. If ever a team had all of the pieces in place for an epic collapse, it's this year's Tigers; the home clubhouse at Comerica Park could contain the perfect storm for a big disappointment. It might not happen, but all of the factors are in place for the kind of epic bombing that could cause them to miss the postseason.
The team's success has been predicated on its pitching staff, and that's where the question marks start. The only thing riskier than relying on Kenny Rogers after the All-Star break is trying to videotape him as he warms up to receive yet another shelling. Rogers' numbers this year are starting to bear an eerie resemblance to his struggles last year, when his ERA swelled two runs after the break. This year, things are looking even worse; after a stellar first half in which he earned the right to start the All-Star Game, his second-half ERA is over six. At this point, the country singer of the same name might be an upgrade to the rotation. He'd get hit just as hard, but he'd also be able to bring delicious rotisserie-roasted chicken into the clubhouse. No problem, you say? Leyland can fall back on his young arms to get him the rest of the way. Jeremy Bonderman and Nate Robertson both look like they've really put things together this year, and Bonderman especially looks like he's arrived as a stud. It's just a shame he won't get to pitch a meaningful late-season game against the A's this year; Billy Beane could reprise his furniture-throwing rampage from Moneyball, which could only help buoy the struggling office-chair industry's sales.
The young arms, though, have to give Leyland pause. Justin Verlander has pitched incredibly well and can probably gain ground in the Cy Young and Rookie of the Year races with Francisco Liriano on the disabled list. However, as many commentators have noted, Verlander's already set a career high for innings pitched, and there are a lot of starts left to be made. His arm probably won't fly off and hit a batter, but it's hard to imagine a guy keeping up such a torrid pace while working so much more than he ever has before.
Fellow rookie Zach Miner, on the other hand, made a red-hot debut and had some dominant outings, but he's looked fairly average over his last six starts. The 43:22 K:BB ratio means he probably won't miss enough bats to get out of every jam he gets into, so there's cause for concern there, too. Sure, there's a chance Mike Maroth could make a strong comeback, but anyone who would consider Maroth a potential savior is probably desperate enough to be duped into joining a cult.
It's not just the rotation that's worrisome, though; the bullpen has disaster potential as well. Young flamethrower Joel Zumaya might as well have "future closer" tattooed on his forehead, and Fernando Rodney's been good for a strikeout an inning. However, any Tigers fan watching Todd Jones close out crucial late-season and playoff games should keep a bucket nearby, because they're going to feel queasy. The best crunch-time closers are the ones who are a bit terrifying, like Mariano Rivera or Francisco Rodriguez. Jones is, well, pretty much the textbook opposite of terrifying. His handlebar mustache looks more like the result of a lost Vaudeville-related bet than a badass-cowboy affectation, and he doesn't strike anyone out (only 22 in 46 IP). Even his entrance music makes him seem like a pushover; he's been known to use both the Counting Crows' Mr. Jones and various Christian rock songs. With choices like those, it wouldn't be surprising if he briefly considered coming out to something from Kidz Bop 9 before deciding it "just didn't rock hard enough."
Although Jones leads the league in saves and has been relatively effective in those situations despite his 4.93 ERA, he's hardly the prototypical shut-down closer for a team that hits its stride in September and keeps it going. Zumaya would make an interesting option as a closer for the stretch run and the playoffs, but Jones seems pretty well entrenched.
The offense looks more reliable, and barring injury, it's tough to see it slowing down. However, "barring injury" is a big condition to set on a team that bats Faberge-fragile outfielder Magglio Ordonez cleanup. After playing in only 134 games combined in 2004-2005, Ordonez must know there's always the risk of a strong breeze or errant blade of outfield grass ending his season. There's not much left-handed power outside of switch-hitting Dmitri Young, or as he will forever be known after the Sept. 1 roster expansions, "Delmon Young's Big Brother." The offense had better keep clicking; with the previously-noted pitching concerns, the Tigers might have to slug their way to the playoffs.
Despite all these potential problems, Detroit still has a nice lead in the division, and they have to be the prohibitive favorites to hold it. Leyland's a great manager, and there's no guarantee that Chicago's rotation will finally get its act together to give them a race. However, there are certainly reasons to think that September may be far more interesting than it needs to be for Tigers fans. |
