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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: orkrious who wrote (68346)	8/16/2006 2:33:19 PM
From: ild	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 110194

@housing bust in full swing -- trotsky, 13:05:27 08/16/06 Wed "Jade, which has built more 500 area homes since its founding in 1997, sold 123 in 2005, according to Coles. This year, Jade sold four." Jade goes belly-up heraldtribune.com @from the pattern recognition department -- trotsky, 11:17:24 08/16/06 Wed i continually scan charts for interesting patterns, and one has struck me as especially noteworthy in the gold juniors sub-sector. the stock in question is CRCUF. i know this pattern - and assign approx. an 85% probability to it producing a bullish move (much higher than e.g. the famed reverse h&s, which has a success rate below 50%) CRCUF chart Canarc is also interesting from a fundamental PoV. its valuation is very low in relation to its gold resources, and recent drill results from Polaris have been extremely encouraging (the size of the deposit is likely to increase considerably). CRCUF also holds about a 10% stake in Endeavor Silver, as well as 80% of the Benzdorp property in Suriname (a large low grade porphyry system, with exceptionally soft host rock - mainly saprolite). it has royalty income from the 60K. oz. p/a Bellavista mine (it has exchanged its ownership stake for a royalty, imo a good move), and also holds a stake in Aztek Metals. the market assigns no value whatsoever to Benzdorp, and yet, the likelihood of proving up a large commercially viable deposit there is great. in the meantime, the most recent Polaris drill results continue to confirm the project's potential: Polaris drill results with 70 million shares fully diluted (63m. are issued), CRCUF sports a low market cap of $34m. - which is about $26 per resource ounce at present. ABX and KGC are major shareholders - they collectively hold about 24m. of CRCUF's issued shares. @pm sentiment -- trotsky (), 10:31:32 08/16/06 Wed skepticism continues to reign. yesterday's impressive bounce (impressive because it happened concurrently with a decline in the PoG) enticed a mere $3.4m. to flow back into the Rydex pm fund. to illustrate 'where we are' w.r.t. to this sentiment indicator, the cash flow ratio now stands at 157 points. on occasion of the May 2005 low, at the end of a grinding cyclical bear market, it stood at roughly 180 points. so in order to regain the level of pessimism that marked this important low, it would have to rise by 23 points (implying inflows of $23 m.) - which would represent inflows amounting to roughly 11.5% of the fund's current total asset base. in any event, we can safely assume that quite a lot of short to medium term bullishness has been wrung out of this market. what is left is likely the residual 'hard core' of money that is committed for the long term. a roughly similar picture is emerging in the COMEX gold futures contract, where roughly 100K-120K contracts of the big speculator category have historically (since about late 2001) proven to be long term position trades (i.e., the gross speculative long position has never fallen below this range during corrections). the caveat in both instances is the danger of downshifting. sometimes historical positioning ranges shift up or down, and it's probably reasonable to assume that something along those lines has actually occurred in the Rydex fund. the reason is that competing products such as e.g. the GDX ETF have entered the scene. so whereas the prior historical (bull market) range of the Rydex pm fund's CF ratio was between 150-305, the upper end of the range seems to be 250 since 2004. note however that this is not certain yet (we don't have enough data yet, and by comparison, the Rydex energy fund has not experienced such a downshift phenomenon in spite of competing products such as XLE). @Abby Joseph Cohen -- trotsky (), 09:57:01 08/16/06 Wed the woman has incredible chutzpa, that's for sure. she's rewriting history live on TV as we speak. Reporter: "Now, Abby, everybody knows you're perennially bullish...." AJC: "No, i'm NOT perennially bullish...your viewers may recall that WE TOLD OUR CLIENTS TO SELL THE US STOCK MARKET IN MARCH OF 2000 due to valuation concerns. there are no such concerns now." trotsky: no, you ugly witch, your viewers won't recall that astounding feat of market timing on your part. if your clients indeed acted on YOUR advice, they're not your clients anymore, cause they got wiped them out. your 'master portfolio of top 10 picks' lost 89% of its value within 7 months (!) of being recommended by you - in autumn of 2000! the only thing that is even more astounding than Ms. Cohen's uncanny ability to pick the biggest losers of the 2000-2001 bear market phase for her former clients is that she didn't get keelhauled or lynched by an angry mob by now. and THAT's the 'chief US market strategist' of Goldman Sachs! she gets paid millions every year - which in itself must count as one of the most mysterious luxury miracles in this world. Kitco Refugees' Gold and Metals Forum voy.com