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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Seeker of Truth who wrote (8351)	8/16/2006 4:34:02 AM
From: energyplay	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 217700

The growth rates are not all in the past for every company. Let's just take the advertising side for starters - This year, about 540 Billion (109) will be spent on advertising world wide, out of a world GDP of about 45 Trillion (1012) About 8% of the 540 Billion will be spent on internet advertising, or roughly 40 Billion. In 4 years that percentage will go to about 20% of all advertising, about 120 Billion. Very strong reasons for this, efficency, tracking what works like direct mail, much lower cost, etc. So we have an additional 80 Billion a year. Some goes to Google, some to ad agencies, and some of that 80 Billion will support new capital spending for routers, fiber optics, storage, etc. ***there is a lot more going on than advertising ************** I will agree with you about the competition - that's why we need to look for companies with franchieses, barriers, lock-in , stickyness, intellectual property, critical mass, etc. Like Apple with proprietary systems, iPod, iTunes Ebay with critical mass Google with critical mass MySpace with critical mass Quicken/Turbo tax (Intuit corp.)with lock-in all your previous tax data Oracle with lock-in Electronic Arts with the Madden football game franchise. Notice that some companies, like Sun, have very little, and are effectively commoditized. The video website companies, like YouTube, are also commodities. The tech sector will require stock picking this time.

To: Seeker of Truth who wrote (8351)	8/16/2006 4:46:08 AM
From: elmatador	Respond to of 217700

It reminds a chat I had with TJ 2002: "furious rate of innovation puts companies in the driver's seat one day and kicks them out of the car the next day" I was telling him that QCOM would be unseated give enough time.

To: Seeker of Truth who wrote (8351)	8/16/2006 5:00:04 AM
From: elmatador	Respond to of 217700

The best chance for tech is to assault a position of someone trying to hold an industry. Example: iPOD is success because Apple assaulted the position of the electronic industry that didn't want to cannibalize their hardware music players. The mobile phone makers want to do something similar: a computerless Internet. That is a way to access the internet not needing a computer. Like TJ does with is PDA. That's the way Africans and poorer people one day will access the Internet. Not yet there but there's where we are going to. Now if you want to use a computer to do voice is not a very good proposition because we are all lazy and want convenience. Having to boot a laptop to talk is not convenient. Of course this is going to be done since we will kill the PABX industry and get voice at the desktop. But mobile voice will survive for forever.