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Strategies & Market Trends : Bob Brinker: Market Savant & Radio Host -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Kirk © who wrote (23787)	8/17/2006 1:24:59 AM
From: E_K_S	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 42834

Kirk - Finally a useful post. What's Brinkers current feeling on the U.S. dollar. My guess in the next 24-36 months it gets weak compared to many of the other curriencies and as a result the FED will have to raise rates to support the dollar. I have not heard Brinker talk at all about the strength of the dollar for several months or years. EKS

To: Kirk © who wrote (23787)	8/17/2006 2:46:50 AM
From: J-L-S	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 42834

"This graph PROVES he is wrong." There are a number of problems with your “PROOF”. First, by plotting two variables (X and Y) on a graph, one could conclude that: A) X causes Y, or B) Y causes X. There is obviously insufficient information to conclude one or the other, or that X and Y are related at all (there are lots of other things you could plot which would follow the same rough pattern, but for which it would be ridiculous to conclude a relationship). Second, PPI usually leads CPI, and your data shows that. However, neither seem to have any correlation to oil price increases over the last 1.5- to 2-years. Average Core PPI has actually been trending down over that time period, while average CPI was flat or trending down over most of that time (showing an increase over only the past few months). Yet average oil prices have been on a steady increase over that whole time from about $45/brl to $75/brl. In fact, average Core CPI over the last two years is lower than it was from mid-2000 to mid-2002, and oil was going for an average of about $30/brl then. It turns out that, for the worst kind of inflation, both A and B have to be true. For instance, the worst kind of inflation is that caused by spiraling wages: higher prices puts pressure on workers to demand, and possibly get, higher wages; the higher wages are possibly passed on by employers with the result that workers demand even higher wages, and they get them. The cycle continues. That which breaks this cycle is ever-increasing productivity, so that employers can pay the higher wages without raising prices. You offered no evidence that X causes Y, or Y causes X, or both, or that both don't follow a normal 4- to 5-year cycle and that neither causes the other.

To: Kirk © who wrote (23787)	8/17/2006 8:01:03 PM
From: dijaexyahoo	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 42834

kirk said: <<Your reporting skills are rusty... or you are spinning like a top to change what Brinker has said about inflation. Where did you get this extra spin "not have a significant effect?" He was quite clear saying "higher priced oil DOES NOT CAUSE INFLATION." He's wrong. Your spinning for him is all the proof we need....>> --We must be listening to different versions of the brinker show. In the ones I have heard, he has stated very clearly that oil prices will cause some inflation in the transportation sector, which will of course effect the core inflation. But he still does not believe high oil prices will have a significant effect on core inflation. You people are goofy if you expect any rational person to believe you are right on this issue, and brinker is wrong. Who among you would have believed inflation would remain this low with oil prices going as high as they have and staying there so long!? None of you would have! If you were honest with yourself and others, you would admit that inflation has stayed MUCH LOWER than you would ever have thought possible with oil prices this high for this long. But of course, you're not interested in honesty. You are interested in only one thing: making brinker look as bad as you possibly can!