Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Wyätt Gwyön who wrote (68538)	8/20/2006 1:45:01 AM
From: bart13	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

this suggests to me that global demand may not contract even if we have a pretty bad recession in the US starting late this year or next year. we would expect this to be a housing induced financial bubble implosion, so it seems similar to the tech bubble implosion in the effects it may have on crude demand. just a guess. if demand doesn't contract, i don't think crude prices will fall that much. Fair enough - give 5 guys the same chart and 5 different interpretations can come off it. Do keep in mind that in '91, WTIC went from $18 to $40 and back to $20 or so. In '93, it dropped from about $20 to about $14. From late 2000 to early '02, it went from $34 to under $20. And by the way, that FRODOR item is basically a rate of change chart of the Fed's custodial account balance. (and to you & loantech, you're most welcome - I'm just paying it forward)

To: Wyätt Gwyön who wrote (68538)	8/20/2006 2:31:40 PM
From: John Vosilla	Respond to of 110194

'..this suggests to me that global demand may not contract even if we have a pretty bad recession in the US starting late this year or next year. we would expect this to be a housing induced financial bubble implosion, so it seems similar to the tech bubble implosion in the effects it may have on crude demand. just a guess.' All sounds plausible to me.. Perhaps there is a reason we aren't attempting to tap the reserves closer to home instead of spending a trillion dollars in Iraq? How also do alternatives like ethanol, solar and hybrids fit into the supply/demand equation in coming years? Sounds to me like Chindia growth in demand trumps all and all these alternative stop gap measures will have huge capital investment in coming years..