ecrire re: ["all commodity investments should therefore be liquidated"]
No... "all" commodity investments should NOT be liquidated.
But, the majority of them should already have been.
Given the systemic risks in the financial system, let alone geopolitically... certainly, investors should have an allocation to commodities -- especially precious metals.
But, there's a world of difference between having some "insurance" and being a greedy permabull led to slaughter...
For traders who have been heavilly over-weighted on a portfolio basis to commodities... the interim bell was rung in May.
There's a world of difference (and hurt of late) between having an "allocation", or some "insurance" and being "over-weighted" to commodities -- especially precious metals.
Months ago... commodity superbull Jimmy Rogers talked about an inevitable correction in China and it's resulting impact on commodities.
Bad debt (over 40% of GDP!) in China's banking system now dramatically exceeds the levels that led to Japans collapse... when, not if... tic' toc'
Jimmy Rogers received so much heat from his own managers and investors in his fund on his comments on the inevitable correction in China... that he did a "180" for obvious self-serving reasons.
Rogers has been a great "big picture" cheerleader for commodities his entire career... but, he is far and long removed from his days of being an "AX" and trading the tape as he did in his glory days for George Soros.
I think there are still a few honest and untainted "reality" checks available out there from longtime commodity bulls.
A few called this speculative spade - a speculative spade...and a few are anticipating a US recession and the effect it will have upon both China and the global economy and the corresponding correction in commodity prices.
Dr. Marc Faber for one...has called it like he see's it.
The folks at Agora Publishing who publish & promote Austrian Economist Dr. Kurt Richebacher's newsletter are running a piece presently on an interview of Richebacher form Justice Little...where Richebacher says he would not buy gold here...
Given Richebacher is like 387 years old and the fact that Agora will suck the money out of your wallet faster than a tattoo'd carnie at a Kentucky county fair... I'd pay closer attention to Faber for what it's worth...
People can find untainted, honest opinion if they look hard enough.
But, they are only fooling themselves if they think they are EVER going to get an honest exit call to "take the money and run" from any of the "major" newsletter writers, or the permabulls on Gold-Eagle, Kitco, 321 Gold etc...
They don't make any money, or sell any newsletters by telling you the run is over and to ring the cash register. If they did -- their subscription base would crater...and that's how they earn their living.
Look what happened to technician Jack Chan -- he got death threats and hate mail for his negative call on Gold and goldstocks that he posted of late on Kitco and 321 gold and he's just a little fish.
The major newsletter publishers will NEVER even try get you out in time... NEVER....it's not in their own best interest.
People will pay to hear only what they want to hear... and the newsletter copywriters that many of these publishers use are incredibly talented. They know you...better than you know you.
And if you think you'll ever get "tipped off" by the frontline Wall Street pundits before the Institutional Investors have already long begun their exits....then
Dorothy -- welcome to OZ!
Speaking of cynics... how about these exec's from Institutional Goldstock Fav' -- Newmont Mining:
...they've been dumping their NEM shares like they were on fire?!?!
ZISCH, WILLIAM M.: Declared Holdings
Company/Relationship Reported Shares Ownership
NEWMONT MIN CP (HLDG
Vice President
NYSE:NEM
(historical quotes, profile, SEC, other insiders)
24-Feb-06 10,145 Direct
Sold 87% of his holdings here in May:
12-May-06 8,833 NEM Planned Sale
(Estimated proceeds of $513,462)
Then there’s Newmont’s CEO:
MURDY, WAYNE W.: Declared Holdings
Company/Relationship Reported Shares Ownership
NEWMONT MIN CP (HLDG
Chairman
NYSE:NEM
(historical quotes, profile, SEC, other insiders)
2-May-06 131,596 Direct
He’s sold over 2/3rds of his holdings, over 367,994 shares --- and notice the DUMP in May:
10-Nov-04 100,000 NEM Sale at $48.25 - $48.35 per share.
(Proceeds of about $4,830,000)
4-Feb-05 4,444 NEM Sale at $41.1319 per share.
(Proceeds of $182,790)
3-Feb-05 5,250 NEM Planned Sale
(Estimated proceeds of $217,560)
3-Feb-06 4,900 NEM Planned Sale
(Estimated proceeds of $294,000)
27-Feb-06 3,400 NEM Planned Sale
(Estimated proceeds of $193,800)
2-May-06 125,000 NEM Planned Sale
(Estimated proceeds of $7,210,000)
2-May-06 44,500 NEM Sale at $57.74 - $57.88 per share.
(Proceeds of about $2,573,000)
2-May-06 46,970 NEM Sale at $57.55 - $57.73 per share.
(Proceeds of about $2,707,000)
2-May-06 33,530 NEM Sale at $57.19 - $57.53 per share.
(Proceeds of about $1,923,000)
SOTB |
