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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: yard_man who wrote (68623)	8/22/2006 5:34:29 PM
From: CalculatedRisk	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 110194

You left out a part ... Moskow said: "... it seems unlikely that prices will actually decline for the nation overall. ... And even if prices did decline nationally, history suggests that the impact on consumer spending would be modest and gradual." First, that sounds like a lawyer. "My client didn't break into the house, and even if he did break in, he didn't steal anything ..." Second, I believe we will see national price declines since the housing bust is national. Third, I think even stagnate prices will have a larger impact on consumer spending than Moskow expects, because it will be more difficult for homeowners to use the "Home ATM" (aka Mortgage Equity Extraction) to maintain their lifestyles and negative savings rates. So falling prices should have an even larger impact. So I guess I disagree with Moskow.