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Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: saveslivesbyday who wrote (60477)	8/22/2006 9:13:13 PM
From: ChanceIs	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 306849

>>>how anyone can spin a 3% rise on that earnings report? Sorry, IMO this stock won't stay over 25 for long,<<< Very good sir. What I didn't relate was that after I bought my poots back for a quick 30% gain, the stock kept on rising - against my short. I never let emotion get involved with investing, but it really POed me. So what could I do but sell a nice fat $25 by $27.50 vertical call spread for $1.05. I could buy it back for $1.00 by the close, but that wouldn't quite cover my transaction costs. I will put in an order to buy it back for $0.75 in the AM, and to reshort my original poots for $1.40. (I know, I know - it probably will run down to $22.50 by Labor Day, but I believe in constantly taking profits and hedging. I used to swing for the fences a lot more). Lizzie pointed out that NSM laid an egg. See my next post about the FED presidents hinting that rates are going higher - as if anybody doubted. Iran being a whack job. Hurricanes on the way. Lowes laying an egg. Dow Transportations trending down again. Great time to be short. Some shorts are better than others.

To: saveslivesbyday who wrote (60477)	8/22/2006 9:28:08 PM
From: ChanceIs	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 306849

>>>how-much-lower-can-they-go-they're-already-at-book-value crowd.<<< Book value. Blah. I held Calpine down to 1/4 book in Oct '02 thinking just that. What an error. At least Calpine had hard tangible assets - you know electrical generators, turbines, natural gas fields. What does a house building company have on its balance sheet on the asset side??? Options on land. Oh yes. So much smarter than last time with options vice direct land ownership. No loans against the land, no real estate taxes, no maintenance costs. Its just that with every passing day, those options are worth less. Drip, drip, drip. We hear more and more about writing options off every day. And every day that book value drops. Book value. How much of that is good will - from perhaps overpaying for the acquisition of smaller homebuilders?? Isn't that the reason this time is different?? The major are acquiring all the minors and consolidating. I have heard this before.