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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Wyätt Gwyön who wrote (68659)	8/23/2006 11:59:23 AM
From: Mary Cluney	Respond to of 110194

the end of a bubble is a judgment call which is pretty much guesswork. once the price of something is determined by momentum as opposed to its relationship to traditional fundamentals, who knows when it will end. Whether you are talking about the Tulip mania in Holland or the Tech bubble in US equities in late 1990's, you are talking about something that is relatively very specific. There are a finite number of variables. Chances are there are a number of variables that you can not identify, but will cancel each other out. The Chinese economy, I would think, has a lot more variables. I doubt Andy Xie has the wherewithal to identify them much less than to understand them. Any of these unknown variables can change the outcome of whatever economic model Andy is using. I doubt Andy Xie's forecast has any value.