Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: valueminded who wrote (55268)	8/23/2006 4:54:32 PM
From: regli	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 116555

"Gee whiz. Prices are still rising - You can convince me of the hard landing when we see significant (>10%) across the board year over year declines - stated another way, if I thought there would be a serious decline, I would sell and rent - I just don't see it happening." It is obvious that even the present (slight) increase already reflects a fall in price as discounts and incentives are not included. I am sure you know that when a market transitions into a sellers market, closing costs and all kinds of things not reflected in the statistics get thrown in. Also, given the fact that the low end and medium level sales have fallen off a cliff distorts the median price and therefore understates what is actually happening.

To: valueminded who wrote (55268)	8/23/2006 5:03:34 PM
From: Moominoid	Respond to of 116555

From what I understand there hasn't been a national YoY decline in the US in recent decades. Things would have to be very severe for a 10% national decline. OTOH 0.9% is a real decline adjusted for inflation.

To: valueminded who wrote (55268)	8/24/2006 2:36:49 PM
From: kaydee	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 116555

VM, I tend to agree with you. I know in Fairfield county (CT) quite a few cases. For example, in Stamford town, a two bed room, one bath apartment in a high rise but very old bldg, typically costs between $300K to $320K, as of 08/2006. This apt was about $200K during 2000-2001. It has appreciated about 50% in about 5 years. What happened this year? It didn't go to $350K plus, as it hasn't appreciated in 2006, instead the price has stabilized. That is what some people call a decline/crash. Similarly a house bought in Stamford, 2001 for $460K is now at $700K. Similar house in the same locality was sold for $710K as recently as 06/2006. The prices have stabilized, but not declined at all, as of today. This is the situation for all residential properties in this area. My knowledge is limited to parts of Fairfield county, CT. It may be totally different in other locations. just my 2 cents...