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Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: John Vosilla who wrote (60599)8/24/2006 6:26:39 AM
From: MoneyPennyRead Replies (1) | Respond to of 306849
 
Month by month reports can skew real information wildly. The price drop in Indian River reflects the absence of a high rise or higher end villa project closing in July. What this information shows me is that the lower priced older condos were the ones moving in Indian River.

Look at Florida/ Lee County

FLORIDA
CONDO SALES
July 2006: 4,260 (-37 percent)
July 2005: 6,739

MEDIAN PRICE
July 2006: $210,200 (-1 percent)
July 2005: $211,900

LEE COUNTY CONDO
SALES
July 2006: 179 (-50 percent)
July 2005: 356

MEDIAN PRICE
July 2006: $346,300 (35 percent)
July 2005: $256,700

COLLIER COUNTY CONDO
SALES
July 2006: 169 (-62 percent)
July 2005: 450

MEDIAN PRICE
July 2006: $352,400 (1 percent)
July 2005: $350,500

In these areas, a project closing can skew the results in any of them. I fully expect "values" to go up this fall when a number of towers in Bonita/Estero close. Then those numbers can be used to try and make a case that values are not falling that much. One of the WCI towers is 100% sold and will close fairly soon. 120 units closing simultaneously at upwards of 900k each can make it difficult to judge the market.

One of my projects closes in November. 105 units closing in Fort Myers at upwards of $600k each will make the November numbers look good. The fact that many are listed for sale over 1M will not show. MP



To: John Vosilla who wrote (60599)8/24/2006 11:35:46 AM
From: mishedloRespond to of 306849
 
Systemic Risk, SPX Correlation, and Fannie Mae
globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Mish