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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Keith J who wrote (24705)	8/24/2006 3:35:09 PM
From: Paul Senior	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 78751

Keith Jamison, I've been considering adding to my small ESV position. This based on forward p/e multiple. It's been a cyclical industry, and while I'm willing to bet the down part of the business cycle will at least be postponed for a while, I might be very wrong that the forward p/e (6.2) is actually relevant. (The time to buy being when earnings are nonexistent) Also, I'm just not familiar enough with the jackup business to evaluate ESV properly. That hasn't stopped me from taking on a few shares though as part of a package. However, my strategy for oil/gas stocks has been to add more on scale up, and that's not worked for me with some companies like ESV. (Have '04 shares in $30's and 4/'06 shares in $50's, for an overall net loss with stock now selling in $40's.) I see on my screen that several others have low p/e's too, and I have considered adding to these also: PTEN: 6.0 RDC: 6.1 ESV: 6.2 GW: 6.6 NSS: 7.0 UNT: 7.0 ---- About that "several others have low p/e's" phrase above: that's the worrisome part for me. It's that the many others DON'T have such low forward p/e's and I don't know why there's that discrepancy. (Different businesses sure, but could the market be anticipating none of these six specific companies above are going to do that well in '06-'08? I don't know.)

To: Keith J who wrote (24705)	8/24/2006 4:40:30 PM
From: Paul Senior	Respond to of 78751

Keith Jamison,(Wallace Rivers, Mark Marcellus, et. al.): I'm one who also bought a little CHS today.

To: Keith J who wrote (24705)	8/24/2006 10:00:41 PM
From: Mark Marcellus	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78751

Near term issues with CHS are apparent, but I think they may be too conservative with their projections at this point. Unless some hurricanes hit the U.S., one would think the year-over-year comparables would not be as difficult to meet. Also, valuation metrics compared with ANN are more reasonable to me at this point. I was also a buyer of more CHS today, but I don't take the short term issues lightly. After listening to the Conference Call I found them fairly convincing when they were talking about how difficult the second half will be. They are going through some fundamental changes in their core Chico's operation, and much of their future growth is dependent on promising, but unproven, new concepts. It's true that comparisons will be easier next year, but if they screw up they could lose some of their loyal customer base. OTOH, WH/BM does remain a stalwart for them. Long term I think this is a good buy, but short term I wouldn't be at all surprised to see this go lower, maybe a lot lower.

To: Keith J who wrote (24705)	8/28/2006 11:33:19 PM
From: Paul Senior	Respond to of 78751

Keith Jamison. Decided to added a little to RDC. Article in current Forbes on drillers. ESV, RDC, others are favorably mentioned. "Ole Slorer; (sic) an analyst at Morgan Stanley says Ensco International and Rowan Cos. stand out for their conservative balance sheets and their exposure to the Gulf of Mexico." I hope that's a positive. GOM stuff seems pretty scary these days. "Standard and Poors...says that Rowan's more technically challenging deep shelf drilling capabilities set it apart." Again, I hope a positive, bwdik? I hold both companies; both have those low p/e's. I am betting the good times in the cycle last for a few more years. And that there are earnings increases and the p/e doesn't go any lower.

To: Keith J who wrote (24705)	9/6/2007 10:53:25 AM
From: Paul Senior	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 78751

ESV: Still have my shares of this oil service stock. Adding a little more today. There's a lot I like: low forward p/e Good profit margins Company profitable in each of past ten years Has more cash than debt (according to Yahoo) Stock buyback announced Professional 'value' investors are in/and or buying Some negatives: Perceived to be in a not-so-great sector: shallow water/Gulf of Mexico Mgmt recently cut its upcoming earnings estimates. Insiders seem to be sellers/not buyers (open market) finance.yahoo.com