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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: ild who wrote (68860)8/25/2006 5:30:48 PM
From: Wyätt Gwyön  Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 110194
 
that's amazing, especially when you consider that the commercials' "natural home" ("preferred habitat" in CFA-speak) is to be long. whenever there is a rare flip like that it's something to keep an eye on. a similar one i've noticed is that the dumbest of dumb money (small specs) are almost always short CL--they have been short almost the entire past 4 years. whenever they go long, which is very rare, there's a good chance CL and energy stocks will plunge.

they went flat and then long at the end of January this year, which was the worst time to get into energy stocks.




To: ild who wrote (68860)8/25/2006 6:01:20 PM
From: George K.  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 110194
 
Ild, any ideas on the reasons for this extreme position and what it might be hedged with? Seems like it's been going against them for nearly a month now.

Thanks.

Geo.



To: ild who wrote (68860)8/27/2006 9:40:19 PM
From: Wyätt Gwyön  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 110194
 
isn't there an ETF or something for the 10yr UST? what is the best way to short it (if you don't have a futures acct)? based on that COTs chart it looks like a great short. notice the dumbest money (small specs) is now about to join the second-dumbest money (Hedge Funds) in going net long.