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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ichy Smith who wrote (200077)	8/29/2006 2:18:18 PM
From: jttmab	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 281500

I can prove my thesis simply by doing nothing. Not really. Even if there is a major event that occurs during the time frame of Oct-Aug, it doesn't "prove" your thesis. A three point data sample of a statistical correlation doesn't have a high confidence level. You need somewhere around 1,000 data points to have a confidence level greater than 95%. And even then a strong statistical correlation doesn't prove a causal relationship. Of course, the other way to approach the problem is to assume that there will be another 10,000 terrorist attacks in the one year period of Oct 2008 thru Sept 2009. Surely out of 10,000 terrorist attacks you can find something to "prove" you're right. jttmab

To: Ichy Smith who wrote (200077)	8/29/2006 2:25:31 PM
From: jttmab	Respond to of 281500

...from 1967 though 2000, the Standard & Poor's 500 index rose an average of 18.6 percent -- about twice the normal annual return -- during years when an NFL team won, according to Ed Yardeni, an economist at Deutsche Bank. The index fell 0.2 percent when AFL teams won. And before 1998, the Indicator and the S&P 500 were out of sync only three times. That's a 90 percent success rate. money.cnn.com And they have a lot more data points than you do. Statistical correlations do not prove causal relationships. jttmab