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Politics : PRESIDENT GEORGE W. BUSH -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: DuckTapeSunroof who wrote (748420)	8/29/2006 2:48:51 PM
From: Hope Praytochange	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 769667

CONVICTED FELONS TO VOTE Sen. Hillary Clinton and John Kerry, among others, are sponsoring a bill that would allow convicted felons to vote. The bill is pushed on the assumption that most of these "new" votes would be Democratic. Felons like to do drugs and to take what is not theirs. But they also like to use guns. I think it is a toss-up.

To: DuckTapeSunroof who wrote (748420)	8/29/2006 2:55:20 PM
From: Hope Praytochange	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 769667

Why Orange is Green: LONG AND SHORT By Kevin Kerr I like drinking orange juice; but I love trading it more. This futures market provides lots of year-round volatility, which means lots of opportunity to make money...or to lose it. Few markets are as volatile to trade as orange juice. Whether due to hurricanes off the coast of Florida during the summer months or to hard freezes during the winter months, juice prices bounce around throughout the year. Many years ago, as a young lad of 21, I worked in the orange juice futures pit in New York. Actually, back in the late 1980s, the orange juice pit wasn't a pit at all: It was what we call a "ring." The reason it was called a ring was there was a wooden circular ring that everyone leaned on and yelled across, rather than a pit you climbed into and yelled across. It was similar to a boxing ring in more ways than one. Anyway, it was a very fast moving and volatile market. Today, juice is still fast moving, but the volatility has smoothed somewhat as the futures have grown and matured and trading volume and liquidity have increased significantly. Juice trading used to be done on the old New York Cotton Exchange (NYCTN), which was located in the World Trade Center prior to Sept. 11. Today, frozen concentrated orange juice (FCOJ) trades on the New York Board of Trade (NYBOT), which was created when the former Coffee, Sugar and Cocoa Exchange merged with the NYCTN. Back when I was in the juice ring, a wise old juice trader once told me, "Never be short orange juice in January." And I never have been. Here's why... This winter, the mercury could drop significantly in central and south Florida, and with the mounting problems already facing citrus farmers from the last couple of years, growers enjoy no margin of safety. The already deluged citrus crop in Florida has been hurt by two years of relentless hurricanes and disease. Therefore, the groves that have managed to survive the last two years could easily lose their fruit in the first hard freeze. I like to see things firsthand — I learned to do that from some of the old-timers I traded with at the beginning of my career. They had the attitude that you needed to get out there and see the condition of the actual commodity yourself. So that's exactly what I did right before and after the hurricanes over the last couple of years, and I am doing it again this year. What I found was fruit that is subpar and damaged, on and off the ground. Citrus canker, a disease that destroys the orange crop and is spread by wind-driven rain, has taken a severe toll on the crop, to say the least. If you ever saw the comedy Trading Places with Eddie Murphy and Dan Aykroyd, then you know the power of the crop reports. While the movie is highly exaggerated, it is based on some truth. Make no mistake; OJ is a weather-driven market. A hurricane, or even the threat of one, or a hard freeze in central Florida can send this market reeling. Often, a smart way to play this market is by using the famous "buy the rumor, sell the news" strategy. Florida is the epicenter of OJ in the U.S., and traders keep a close eye on all weather patterns affecting the region. And so should you. By the time weather actually hits the crop, it's too late to buy. Orange juice will almost certainly see its price soar as a result of the recent U.S. hurricanes and impending cold winter. In the last two years, various soft drink and juice analysts have warned that the cost of juice and citrus- based soda could surge 25% or more. Bottom line: Hurricanes and strong winds in the U.S. and Caribbean have affected orange crops in a big way. Some OJ bears are saying that retailers will be able to contain the costs within their existing prices, but I hardly think so, given the depth of the damage. Consumers should prepare themselves for substantial price rises. Europe could be especially hard hit. U.K. consumers drink about 1,200 million liters of fruit juice a year, and 70% of that is OJ. Commodity futures are the best vehicle to trade orange juice, and options on the futures are even better. The January 2007 orange juice (OJF7) future is the best bet for a new entry, as it has plenty of time value and a fairly liquid options chain. Money may not grow on trees, but oranges do, and this year, being long orange juice futures, or options on juice futures, could be as good as money.