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Strategies & Market Trends : Moomin Valley (formerly Troll-free Zone) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: skinowski who wrote (1647)	8/30/2006 10:25:43 AM
From: Moominoid	Respond to of 2852

In retrospect probably what I should have done from a profit maximizing perspective. But the situation evolves day by day and I can see a potential in the next couple of days for the market to fall as the stochastic still rises. The middle of my indicators has the stochastic falling again on Friday.... OTOH there is some chance of a runaway rally getting underway though all other indicators whether the McClellan Oscillator, E-Wave or my autoregressive model, seem to be against that. I like to push the model till it breaks and then weork out how to improve it. If there wasn't money on the line I doubt I would work so hard on trying to figure things out. Still I regard this as still being a trial period of testing the model.

To: skinowski who wrote (1647)	8/30/2006 11:02:49 AM
From: Moominoid	Respond to of 2852

My own indicators derived from the stochastic are in exactly the same pattern as they are now twice in 2005. Once in mid to late February and once in early November: stockcharts.com In the first case there was an upturn in the stochs from a high level and a small spike in the stochastics and a small but essentially failed rally. That is what I am betting on here. But in early November the upturn turned into a massive overbought rally. So distinguishing between the two situations is of utmost importance :)

To: skinowski who wrote (1647)	8/30/2006 12:02:39 PM
From: Moominoid	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 2852

I've found something to distinguish the two cases. In the November case the %K stochastic was above 90 and heavily overbought. In February it peaked above 90 but on the equivalent of today it was back at 80. If today closes flat or down, the failed rally hypothesis will be strengthened.