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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: RJA_ who wrote (69095)8/30/2006 5:38:58 PM
From: bart13  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 110194
 

The How And Why Of Gold Price Manipulation

Not too long ago I considered this to be the realm of conspiracy theorists and kooks.

Now, I think it is more likely than not that CB's are manipulating the gold price.

...

This manipulation appears to be a problem for all sound money folks... miners, traders, etc. It would be good to have a strategy to deal with it.

Anyone have thoughts on this?


Nothing like a simple question... G

From the 30,000 foot and broad level, my take is that the gold price is driven by two things - the trend and level of real interest rates, and the trend and level of global liquidity.
And I just happen to have some charts:







Here's the shorter term chart on what boils down to real interest rates:


Here's a picture of the entire Fed "off the beaten path" actions - my point being it hasn't reversed...yet.


A similar one from the BoJ, but only covering major monetary elements


More BoJ, but only covering a few hot money items


On the very short term, one can get a clue how much manipulation is going on in the gold market by paying attention to both the COT chart (the level and changes in the commercials) and tracking relative premiums between spot and futures markets.

(this chart is not normally published anywhere on my site)


Just my $.02 worth... in pre-1982 copper pennies of course.