Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: orkrious who wrote (69166)	8/31/2006 10:29:50 AM
From: John Vosilla	Respond to of 110194

Sorry I should have stated no correlation in the past couple of years to yield spreads. It would nice to see that spread for the past 25 years and how long they remained low prior to the 1987, 1990 and 2000 stock market downturns.

To: orkrious who wrote (69166)	8/31/2006 1:04:36 PM
From: ild	Respond to of 110194

@GG/GLG merger -- trotsky, 09:51:18 08/31/06 Thu now we can start to speculate on who will be next - AEM surely must be in their (GG's) sights too. other potential take-over targets/consolidators (not for GG, but generally speaking): KGC, BGO, GOLD, NSU, MRB, GSS to name a few. imo it's also likely that the South Africans are on somebody's menu. i know Lassonde went off in a huff when Trevor Manuel and the SARB blocked the mooted Franco/GFI merger, but where else in the world do you find gold reserves of this size at such discount prices? the consolidation will definitely continue, that much is certain. needless to say, this is bullish for the sector UNTIL it gets out of hand.

To: orkrious who wrote (69166)	9/1/2006 12:36:55 PM
From: ild	Respond to of 110194

smythe@sloppy action as far as the eye can see -- trotsky, 12:09:29 09/01/06 Fri my eye sees farther. nothing sloppy about the action in e.g. KGC, VGZ, NSU, MMRSF, AEM, GOLD, to name a few. KGC is actually at a new 8-year high as we speak. frustrated@NEM -- trotsky, 12:05:16 09/01/06 Fri downgraded by CIBC? this amounts to a sector - wide strong buy signal(since NEM is the sector heavyweight). Hambone@pm's -- trotsky, 11:59:24 09/01/06 Fri don't get me wrong - with regards to the technical and sentiment picture in the pm's, nothing of importance has actually changed, so viewed in isolation, i would have to remain in favor of the bullish scenario. my concerns relate only to the broader market, which looks more vulnerable now than it has previously. this doesn't necessarily mean things will fall out of bed right away. it's just a heads-up - IF the pm sector/Dow correlation persists, we could get some shrapnel flying our way by way of this correlation. this doesn't mean we won't have a few weeks of bullish action still ahead. i'm just warning of complacency, not really sounding a bearish note (on pms). @stock market -- trotsky, 10:24:02 09/01/06 Fri time for an alert here, methinks. up until recently, the short term stock market indicators i'm watching have been bullishly aligned, but now the situation is far from so clear anymore. in fact, a number of warning signals have now been issued. most prominently, the OEX put/call ratio 10-dma has been screaming higher, which almost ensures some sort of short term top is close by (this indicator's track record is very convincing). the question is of course, how will the pm's handle it if the broader market begins to decline. at the very least, this tempers the near term outlook somewhat, since pm's and the market-at-large have exhibited a strong correlation thus far this year. anyway, i conclude that one is probably best served by either tightening stops or hedging exposure by other means. i note that put options are very cheap across the board (due to misnomed 'income' strategies employing the short selling of cheap options in massive quantities).