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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: YanivBA who wrote (69202)8/31/2006 3:43:01 PM
From: Ramsey Su  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 110194
 
biz.yahoo.com

this should be worth listening to.

One of shockers that I think I am seeing is the magnitude of the losses on a per loan basis. I am in the process of looking at a selection of loans in default, as well as loans that have already been foreclosed upon to see if I can determine the percentage loss.

Right now, I am of the opinion that the reserves set aside by HRB, IMH, LEND, FMT, FHN (all recently in the news) are inadequate, but I will have a much better idea when I am done.

What surprised me today was that I read 45-50% of all subprime loans were originated in two states - CA and FL.



To: YanivBA who wrote (69202)8/31/2006 5:27:23 PM
From: John Vosilla  Respond to of 110194
 
'..Being a little mathematically inclined I have to say I have zero faith in the assumptions required for the models. They will all break down on the first real test.'

The assumptions for the future never seem to pan out. Always too optimistic in good times and too pessimistic after a downturn.