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Biotech / Medical : Biotech Valuation -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Biomaven who wrote (21138)	9/4/2006 1:04:00 AM
From: Robohogs	Respond to of 52153

Assymetrical (sp?) risks are not being priced properly IMHO. Given past Semptember horrors, I bought some portfolio insurance with some QQQQ puts 1/2% out of the money for about 1%. I only bought a small amount but the mkt does not appear to be pricing in much downside here where history suggests there should be some (usually have an October low leading to upside from this point in decade and Presidential cycles). Jon

To: Biomaven who wrote (21138)	9/4/2006 1:42:12 AM
From: Doc Bones	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 52153

After the bubble burst, the Nasdaq finally made a recovery in 2003, bouncing back over 2000. Since that time, it's basically done nothing. Option sellers have made a lot of money, and have had to accept lower and lower premiums. I think this may be a good time to place some longer-term bets on indices, as there is potential volatility around the question of the housing bubble - the "hard or soft landing." To my mind that question is still up in the air. I can see lots of reasons why the housing bubble should burst, and I think they've been very irresponsible pushing interest-only loans and negative amortization, etc. But so far prices don't seem to have fallen hard, mortgage interest rates have actually fallen recently [along with the 10-year bond], and housing is a sacred cow that the government puts a lot of effort into protecting. I think the market hasn't made it's mind up yet either. I'll look at some year long S&P options as the Barrons' article recommended, probably slanted to the put side. Doc

To: Biomaven who wrote (21138)	9/4/2006 11:46:05 AM
From: Rocky9	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 52153

OT re market options and hedges. I wish that I felt more comfortable with market options. I think that I follow the author's comments, but I don't feel good enough to act on them. OTOH, I do own a lot of Hussman Strategic Growth (http://finance.yahoo.com/q?d=t&s=HSGFX). Hussman puts out a weekly market commentary which is very good (http://www.hussmanfunds.com/weeklyMarketComment.html). His fund is fully hedged at the present time. I use the fund as a fixed income alternative (as well as a long-short hedge fund alternative). If anyone has any other "absolute return" or long-short hedge fund alternatives, I'd love to hear about them.