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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: mishedlo who wrote (69338)	9/5/2006 1:10:54 AM
From: John Vosilla	Respond to of 110194

<<I am officially sticking to my guns. Did you see me declare victory yet?>> Yes Mish you are so far behind the new age RE moguls who leveraged 3-4 years ago in bubbleville USA or anyone who took their dollars to Euro's or Canada the same time it ain't even funny. What victory? Show me where my dollar buys more than it bought a year or two or three ago? Much of the inflation in the cost of housing or commercial property is in the RE taxes, insurance, costs of repair, maintenance and utilities plus a rise in interest rates. You pay for it in so many ways it isn't even funny. Just like energy. Perhaps so many people will be cashing in their chips and flocking to inexpensive places like Danville, Bloomington or Rochester because of the mess we are in today..

To: mishedlo who wrote (69338)	9/5/2006 5:10:11 AM
From: Mike Johnston	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

BTW, "Real Money" growth is actually negative and I will produce sine charts to support that point of view soon with help of a friend. I don't think real money growth is negative. I think SP500 and the value of the dollar are better proxies for money growth than the statistics that are being released. Since bond market prices are no longer informative, one must look to gold, oil and currencies to deduct the degree of inflationary pressures that are in the pipeline. You will be able to declare victory if real estate prices decline 50% or more, oil declines to the $40 level and the dollar returns to parity with the euro. If that happens i will buy you a steak dinner for 4 at your choice of a restaurant anywhere in the world.

To: mishedlo who wrote (69338)	9/5/2006 9:11:35 AM
From: Wyätt Gwyön	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

rather prices have ben used ad infinitum by inflationists to support their views. i just told you that wasn't the basis for the inflationist argument (cf. Jim Grant), but it seems you weren't listening. If home prices represented inflation and gas prices represented inflation and nail salon prices represented inflation then what are we seeing now? Gee, you are really into setting up straw men. i just told you home prices are not the place to look. that is a bubble. gas prices cannot be called a bubble, but they cannot be said to be nonvolatile, either. if a big hurricane hits the gulf they will go back up. you are better off looking at a moving average of gas prices. you will find they are WAY up. every energy price is way, WAY up on MA compared to a few years ago, when you became a deflationist. i am amazed to hear a deflationist calling a one-month drop in energy prices deflation. as for nail salons, can we say data mining? i think your argument there was based on some blurb out in a newspaper out of Florida. it does not seem you have any national data. you also declared Bennigan's was cutting its hamburger prices by more than 37%. based on what--you went into a Bennigan's one day and they were having a sale? personally, it seems EVERYTHING i pay money for is going up. my pool guy (former tech stock lover) just raised his monthly rate 20%. utilities cost more. food costs more. private schools cost more. colleges cost more. apart from the mortgage, these are the types of things that make up the bulk of consumer's monthly expenditures. and of course we know that mortgages cost a LOT more as rates reset higher. Mish, as i recall you expected Greenspan to stop raising at 1.75% or something. so it must be quite a shock to you that we have a 5-handle these days. despite the much higher interest rates, there is a real risk of USD imploding. much as the Fed and Treasury like to talk down USD, they do not really want an implosion because WMT goods will skyrocket in price. i doubt this is a rate-slashing environment. certainly a one-month fall in energy (which has much more to do with the weather and geopolitics than with demand changes) is not going to be considered deflation and a good excuse to cut rates.