Who will wind up in the next Senate?
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By John J. Miller
National Review Political Reporter
September 5, 2006
Pundits like to say that political campaigns don’t really start until Labor Day. Herewith, a review of the hottest one-day-old Senate races in the land.
This assessment updates my previous one, posted about two months ago. I’ve switched Minnesota from “toss up” to “leaning Democratic retention,” and I’ve moved Montana and Ohio from “leaning Republican retention” to “toss up.”
Republicans currently control 55 seats in the Senate, compared to 45 seats for the Democrats. Because Vice President Cheney would cast any tie-breaking votes, Democrats must gain a total of six seats in order to take over. That’s going to be tough: It will require wins in Missouri, Montana, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Rhode Island — i.e., running the table in the races I’ve scored as “toss ups” — plus a big-time upset in Arizona, Tennessee, or Virginia.
ARIZONA: Democratic nominee Jim Pederson has poured millions of dollars from his bank account into his campaign, but so far he hasn’t been able to overcome a fairly consistent 10-point deficit against Republican senator Jon Kyl, a conservative favorite. Last week, an Arizona State University poll of registered voters put Kyl ahead, 46 percent to 36 percent. LIKELY REPUBLICAN RETENTION
CONNECTICUT: Although Ned Lamont beat Sen. Joe Lieberman in last month’s Democratic primary, Lieberman appears well positioned to return to the Senate. He’s technically running as an independent, but he retains the support of many loyal Democrats and says he will remain within the party if he’s re-elected. Lots of Republicans are backing the incumbent as well: Last week, Lieberman said that Jack Kemp would stump for him. (They must have met at the annual gathering of the Loser Veep Candidates Association.) A Quinnipiac University poll of registered voters gave Lieberman 49 percent and Lamont 38 percent. The GOP candidate, former state representative Alan Schlesinger, is mired in the low single digits. LIKELY DEMOCRATIC RETENTION
FLORIDA: A couple of months ago, a poll gave Democratic senator Bill Nelson a 30-point lead over GOP congresswoman Katherine Harris. It’s hard to imagine, but things have gotten better for the incumbent: A GOP survey of likely voters, conducted about a week ago, put Nelson up, 63 percent to 20 percent. Can it get any worse for Republicans in a state where they really ought to be competitive? LIKELY DEMOCRATIC RETENTION
MARYLAND: Next Tuesday, Democratic primary voters will choose between Rep. Ben Cardin and former Rep. Kweisi Mfume. The winner goes against Lt. Gov. Michael Steele, a Republican. A recent poll of registered voters gave Cardin an edge over Mfume in the primary, 43 percent to 30 percent. Cardin’s sizeable money advantage should help him preserve this lead. The same survey also gave Cardin a small lead over Steele, 44 percent to 39 percent, in the general election. Steele, however, runs a bit ahead of Mfume, 42 percent to 38 percent. Interestingly, Steele performs much better among Democrats than either of his potential opponents do among Republicans; against Cardin (who is white), Steele (who is black) appears to draw about 20 percent of black voters. If he can improve that figure just a little, he may surprise. Expect him to camp out in Prince George’s County, home to many middle-class blacks. LEANING DEMOCRATIC RETENTION
MICHIGAN: Sen. Debbie Stabenow will benefit from anti-GOP attitudes, but not as much as Democrats elsewhere: Michigan, which is the only state besides Louisiana to have lost jobs over the last year, may be in thoroughly anti-incumbent mood. Still, she holds a lead over her Republican opponent, Oakland County sheriff Michael Bouchard. A recent GOP survey put her up, 49 percent to 42 percent. LEANING DEMOCRATIC RETENTION
MINNESOTA: Although it’s far too early to toss in the towel, this open-seat race has disappointed Republicans. In other states, such as Florida and North Dakota, they’ve struggled to recruit first-class candidates. In Minnesota, they got exactly the guy they wanted: Rep. Mark Kennedy. But in last week’s USA Today/Gallup poll of likely voters, Democratic county attorney Amy Klobuchar held a 10-point lead, 50 percent to 40 percent. LEANING DEMOCRATIC RETENTION
MISSOURI: Three recent polls have given Republican senator Jim Talent a slight lead over Democratic state auditor Claire McCaskill. The latest, a survey of likely voters by USA Today/Gallup, put the contest at 50 percent for Talent and 44 percent for McCaskill. This is a significant development, reversing a trend from earlier this year when McCaskill tended to hold a small advantage. TOSS UP
MONTANA: Although a Rasmussen poll of likely voters had this race tied a month ago, Democratic state Senate president Jon Tester has otherwise led Republican senator Conrad Burns. Last week’s USA Today/Gallup survey gave him 48 percent, with 45 percent for Burns. The 50-year-old Tester, who sports an old-school crew cut, has proven to be a much more formidable challenger than even members of his own party suspected. His populist campaign may well terminate the career of the 71-year-old Burns. TOSS UP
NEBRASKA: After underwriting an expensive primary campaign, Republican businessman Pete Ricketts has pumped about $2.5 million of his own money into the general election race against Democratic senator Ben Nelson. Unfortunately for the GOP, this contest probably was lost on the day that President Bush asked Gov. Mike Johanns, a potential candidate against Nelson, to serve as agriculture secretary. LIKELY DEMOCRATIC RETENTION
NEVADA: This race isn’t really worth tracking, except that it’s fun to think that Jimmy Carter’s son, Democratic nominee Jack Carter, is going to get squished like an empty can of Billy Beer. A Las Vegas Review-Journal poll last month gave Republican senator John Ensign a healthy lead among likely voters, 54 percent to 33 percent. LIKELY REPUBLICAN RETENTION
NEW JERSEY: Tomorrow it’s Bush vs. Clinton in the Garden State, with President Bush flying in to help out Republican challenger Tom Kean and former President Clinton visiting to boost Democratic senator Bob Menendez. A Republican poll of likely voters in August gave Menendez a slight advantage, 42 percent to 40 percent. Possible upside for Kean: Menendez has a much higher unfavorable rating. TOSS UP
NEW YORK: In next Tuesday’s primary, Republicans will choose a sacrificial lamb to take on Democratic senator Hillary Rodham Clinton. The choice is between former Pentagon official Kathleen Troia McFarland and former Yonkers mayor John Spencer, with Spencer probably favored to win. A month ago, a poll of registered voters showed him losing badly to HRC, 58 percent to 32 percent. LIKELY DEMOCRATIC RETENTION
OHIO: Earlier this year, Republican senator Mike DeWine led all the polls. Since July, Democratic congressman Sherrod Brown has enjoyed the position of frontrunner. About two weeks ago, a Rasmussen survey of likely voters gave Brown a three-point edge, 45 percent to 42 percent. DeWine is hobbled by GOP scandals in Columbus and a general lack of enthusiasm among conservatives; he may yet benefit from exposing Brown’s liberal voting record in Congress. TOSS UP
PENNSYLVANIA: Conservatives applauded the performance of Republican senator Rick Santorum in his Meet the Press debate against Democratic state treasurer Bob Casey Jr. on Sunday. Will it help? A lot of his supporters probably were at church. Over the last few months, this race — probably America’s most-watched Senate contest — has tightened significantly, as most people suspected it would. A few weeks ago, a Keystone Poll of registered voters gave Casey a lead of 44 percent to 39 percent — much different from the double-digit margins of earlier this year. Santorum’s unfavorable rating is far higher than Casey’s, and this will continue to dog him. What’s more, last week’s USA Today/Gallup survey of likely voters gave Casey an 18-point advantage. Wild card: The candidacy of Carl Romanelli of the Green party, who is polling at 3 or 4 percent. One survey suggests that these votes come right out of Casey’s column. TOSS UP
RHODE ISLAND: GOP senator Lincoln Chafee, a liberal, faces Cranston mayor Steven Laffey, a maverick conservative, in next week’s GOP primary. If Chafee survives this test, an equally difficult challenge awaits in the form of Democratic former attorney general Sheldon Whitehouse. For Chafee, it’s possible to see either race going either way — these are coin-flip contests. The probability of a quarter landing on heads twice in a row is 25 percent. TOSS UP
TENNESSEE: In a hard-fought, three-way contest, former Chattanooga mayor Bob Corker captured the Republican nomination last month with an impressive 48 percent of the vote. He’ll go against Democratic congressman Harold Ford Jr. in the race to succeed GOP Sen. Bill Frist, who is retiring. In July, a poll of likely voters showed Corker beating Ford, 49 percent to 35 percent. LEANING REPUBLICAN RETENTION
VERMONT: Republican businessman Richard Tarrant is spending nearly $5 million of his own money on this election, but he remains a serious underdog against congressman Bernie Sanders, a socialist “independent” who will caucus with Democrats. Next Tuesday, Tarrant is expected to beat retired Air Force colonel Greg Parke in the GOP primary. LIKELY DEMOCRATIC RETENTION
VIRGINIA: Can former Reagan administration official James Webb, running as an antiwar Democrat, actually oust GOP senator George Allen? Last month, a Zogby Interactive poll put the race at 48 percent for Webb and 47 percent for Allen. Every other recent survey, however, has given Allen the edge: A Rasmussen poll of likely voters, for instance, had it 47 percent for Allen and 42 percent for Webb. There still appear to be enough undecided voters to give Webb hope, and Allen’s notorious “macaca” comment has hurt the senator. Yet Allen, a likely 2008 presidential contender, has a lot more money in the bank. This one remains his to lose. LIKELY REPUBLICAN RETENTION
WASHINGTON: In a different national political environment, GOP businessman Mike McGavick might actually be leading Democratic senator Maria Cantwell. He’s a good candidate and Cantwell has weaknesses. He tends to do much better in polls of likely voters as opposed to registered voters — not a surprise — but he always seems to trail. A GOP poll of likely voters late last month put Cantwell at 48 percent and McGavick at 43 percent. LEANING DEMOCRATIC RETENTION
WEST VIRGINIA: GOP businessman John Raese has struggled to gain traction against Democratic senator Robert Byrd, who will be 89 years old when he’s sworn in for a new term next year. LIKELY DEMOCRATIC RETENTION
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