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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: mishedlo who wrote (69478)9/8/2006 1:13:37 PM
From: John Vosilla  Respond to of 110194
 
'But I suspect he will try damn hard once he sees what is happening.'

But what is really happening? Do people see what they want to see?

All I see is housing is cracking in a major way, economy still strong, interest rates real low, access to credit is readily available, unemployment rates still low and most folks can't keep up with rising costs of things they need.

The strength of the stock market averages now into Sept might be telling us something especially if we get a quick nasty fall and then a snapback rally into the holiday season..



To: mishedlo who wrote (69478)9/8/2006 10:44:01 PM
From: Joe Stocks  Respond to of 110194
 
The question is will Bernanke be as quick to bail out those as Greenspan was?

Hi Mish. Something happened to Greenspan after his "irrational exuberance" comments in December of 1996. I think he was made to eat carpet by the Clinton administration for making waves. The Clinton administration was looking good for a successful Mexican bailout. Then Greenspan suggested irrational exuberance may be present, and the market crashes, undoing the positive economic accomplishments of the newly re-elected President. I'm sure that Rubin and Clinton were more than a little upset as they just renewed Greenspan's 4 year tenure in June of 1996, with some opposition from Clinton's own party, the democrats. Fortunately the 1996 election was over.

After that, Greenspan rolled over on any suggestion of a bailout for anything. Who may have been the most powerful man in the world at one time, became the puppet of higher powers. In my opinion, any decision on a bailout will be between the then current Presidential administration and the mega-banks leadership (the CRMPG). Bernanke, as Greenspan was in his later years, a mere rubber stamp to any kind of scheme the other two concoct - two parties that have a very vested interest to be quick on bailouts.

That said, I would not be surprised if under the surface there will be a series of small bailouts that we will never know about. The whole CRMPG thing is about insurance and the sharing of exposure so issues can be delt with quickly - and privately. Right now everyone thinks they are insured against large losses. Just wait until the less obnvious debt bubble pops and everyone finds they are indirectly holding the same collateral. That will be one bailout that won't be able to be bailed out.

Like you said - "no bigger bubbles to be blown".