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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: russwinter who wrote (69492)	9/8/2006 9:45:00 AM
From: Arran Yuan	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

Russ, From what you presented and adding the USA's mighty weaponry, my speculation is that US FRN$ is not going to experience a "crash". In stead, a managed Paint Drying or Chinese Water Dropping is more likely the pattern of US FRN$'s future path. Now about the future of gold, this is a picture that deserves some discussion, nowandfutures.com Where will $GOLD go once Greed/Fear turns down from now or in the future? The probability of each scenario? Will $GOLD decouple from this Greed/Fear index, as during 9/1/02 - 9/1/03? Or simply go the way pre-9/1/02 as in the figure? Arran

To: russwinter who wrote (69492)	9/8/2006 3:49:36 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

Russ I am not looking at it in a peculiar way. You are. If you make a statement "The Fed is printing" then it should be backed up. If you mean to say GSEs have ben creating debt out of thin air I agree 100%. If you want to talk about the carry trade in YEN then I agree with that too, but point blank the Fed is not printing a lot. It is indeed an accurate statement. If you want to point to their role in slashing rates to 1% and holding them their spawning off all sorts of weird credit derivative plays, again I will not disagree. In fact I bet if you do a search I can find statements from you arguing with others about the amount of monetization the Fed is doing and I believe you said little. Yes, there has been a massive boom in credit and I think it will be unwound with great consequenses, but one can not blame this on "Fed Printing". It is a mammoth debt bubble fueled by central banks worldwide with lax lending standards everywhere. Printing per se has little to do with it so why single out "fed printing" when that is probably number 10 on the list of problems. Mish