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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: russwinter who wrote (69502)	9/8/2006 12:31:17 PM
From: CalculatedRisk	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

HSBC: Risk of U.S. recession growing Income of most Americans are falling and housing slowdown threatens economy despite companies doing well. September 8 2006: 11:16 AM EDT money.cnn.com NEW YORK (Reuters) -- Investment bank HSBC has revised downward its forecast for 2007 economic growth and cautioned that the risk of an outright recession is growing as a retreat in housing threatens household balance sheets. The company argues that while corporate profits have remained sky-high, the incomes of most Americans have effectively fallen over the last 18 months. That, say economists Stephen King and Ian Morris, could be a recipe for hard times in an economy that relies on consumers for over two-thirds of its strength. "Never before have households been so hard hit at a time companies are doing so well," the two economists said in a research note to clients. "So it's likely that the U.S. could slow down quite a long way." They now see gross domestic product expanding just 1.9 percent next year, down from an earlier forecast of 2.6 percent and from an expected rate of growth around 3.5 percent for 2006. Making things worse, the bank says, a mammoth budget deficit means the U.S. government has "less room to maneuver" if the economy does skid off track. In the last recession, a massive round of tax cuts and a super-loose monetary policy helped the economy get a second wind. Americans will have no such luck this time around, King and Morris warn.