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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: redfrecknj who wrote (69618)	9/10/2006 9:21:03 PM
From: orkrious	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 110194

Hussman: hussmanfunds.com In bonds, the Market Climate remained characterized by modestly unfavorable valuations and relatively neutral market action, holding the Fund to a limited duration of less than 2 years, mostly in Treasury inflation protected securities, with just under 20% of assets in precious metals shares.

To: redfrecknj who wrote (69618)	9/11/2006 9:05:00 AM
From: russwinter	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 110194

M1 is useful as a Brazil American recession indicator, but does not pick up Bully Wannabess, Bullies and Pig Men. I think the best money supply indicator to use that captures the Amerikan bifurcated, high Gini coefficient, en.wikipedia.org housing Bubble dependent economy is non M1, M2. Thinking aloud, I'd use a six month percentage change, not the lagging one year change rate shown on the Fed site. research.stlouisfed.org Maybe Bart can create a six month change chart in non M1, M2? Use the same point of the month, as it has a high near the end of the month, and a low near mid month after mortgages get paid. I'd use mid month as it may pick up extra stress from resets. The six month change is still running about 4.7% annualized, which indicates to me Bullies are still in the game, although most Americans are in big trouble (see M1). Non M1, M2 does appear to be slowing a bit since June, 2006-06-19 5481.4 2006-08-21 5514.6 so perhaps a 13 week average change could also be used? research.stlouisfed.org 2005-08-01 5187.4 2005-08-08 5180.2 2005-08-15 5184.4 2005-08-22 5190.3 2005-08-29 5189.0 2005-09-05 5205.4 2005-09-12 5217.2 2005-09-19 5225.6 2005-09-26 5231.1 2005-10-03 5223.5 2005-10-10 5242.9 2005-10-17 5264.5 2005-10-24 5254.2 2005-10-31 5251.4 2005-11-07 5265.0 2005-11-14 5269.2 2005-11-21 5270.8 2005-11-28 5272.1 2005-12-05 5276.0 2005-12-12 5297.6 2005-12-19 5303.0 2005-12-26 5309.7 2006-01-02 5330.9 2006-01-09 5367.8 2006-01-16 5361.3 2006-01-23 5360.4 2006-01-30 5319.3 2006-02-06 5344.5 2006-02-13 5373.7 2006-02-20 5391.7 2006-02-27 5386.1 2006-03-06 5396.8 2006-03-13 5387.6 2006-03-20 5389.5 2006-03-27 5375.4 2006-04-03 5362.8 2006-04-10 5391.2 2006-04-17 5414.0 2006-04-24 5399.2 2006-05-01 5403.4 2006-05-08 5388.2 2006-05-15 5394.8 2006-05-22 5409.7 2006-05-29 5406.7 2006-06-05 5425.5 2006-06-12 5450.3 2006-06-19 5481.4 2006-06-26 5475.9 2006-07-03 5467.6 2006-07-10 5487.2 2006-07-17 5507.9 2006-07-24 5484.2 2006-07-31 5444.0 2006-08-07 5490.6 2006-08-14 5500.9 2006-08-21 5514.6 2006-08-28 5498.6