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Biotech / Medical : Sepracor-Looks very promising -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Rocky9 who wrote (9680)	9/11/2006 10:50:31 AM
From: Iamarangerboy	Respond to of 10280

wow, great, gotta have more faith in Jon's assessments!!!

To: Rocky9 who wrote (9680)	9/11/2006 11:59:40 PM
From: Robohogs	Respond to of 10280

Thanks Rocky. Using $40 per Rx and assuming an 86% capture rate for weekly IMS, I have $12 MM for the quarter for MDI assuming no de-stocking/stocking and assuming no further ramp in Rx's. At current ramp rate (+2K weekly), I would have just under $13 MM for the quarter. Current quarterly run rate is about $15 MM for MDI. On L, it is too hard to judge weekly ramps from L last year as it was still in growth mode. What I can say is that Ambien's 9/2 week last year was about 4% above its early August week and about 2% below early October levels (excluding Cr). So the first week ending in September is usually a strong week (refills and pre-holiday sales) but not that that strong. I would expect next week for L will back into the 120,000 +/- range and the real test will be approaching end of September to see if the sales can move towards 130K. Below are the first non-holiday weeks for L each month. I have early July there with ??? as I do not have data. The only other weeks above 120K (not listed) were in August (2 other times), July (21st) and February (Feb 10 was just higher than June 9 and Aug 4 levels). So there has been an ever so slight pick-up over last month and a half in Lunesta (lows each month moving from 110-115K toward 120K) but it is still too early to tell as pattern is ever so minor and September 1 should have done what it did from seasonal pattern. I have $155 MM for the quarter BTW (assumes no more destocking and 3% price increase along with 85% capture rate - my stocking levels are at 4.5 weeks vs. 5 week guidance but some of this could be that IMS capture rate is 87% or so or price is dropping for L despite list price increase earlier this year). Dec 2 121,994 Jan 13 120,858 Feb 3 122,450 March 3 123,534 April 7 123,109 May 5 123,970 June 9 121,150 July 7/14 ??? August 4 121,228 Sept 1 127,267 Jon