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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: yard_man who wrote (69640)	9/11/2006 11:59:31 AM
From: Wyätt Gwyön	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 110194

there are no guarantees--there are only guesses. you guess it is too early on energy--fine. maybe your guess is right, but you do not "know". what is the difference between a guess and a guarantee? a guess is a recognition of fallibility, due to one's own possible misperceptions and to the inherent unpredictability of the markets. one who realizes he is guessing does not "bet it all on black." by contrast, one who believes he in guarantees thinks (erroneously) that he is infallible, meaning he believes in fairy tales about his own greatness and that the world's phenomena play out according to a preordained script. intoxicated with hubris, he bets it all on black... people who believe in guarantees in the markets should keep their day jobs or become market gurus. they all lose their wad at some point. remember Irving Fischer's guarantee--"We have reached a permanently high plateau." circa this time of year, in 1929.