Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Kirk © who wrote (32534)	9/11/2006 5:46:28 PM
From: Return to Sender	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95615

I'll make it simple for you because I'll answer the questions. What is the average decline for the S&P 500 to a cyclical bottom since 1942 through 2002? 26.4% according to the table provided at the following link: gbr.pepperdine.edu Even in 1994 the S&P 500 declined 9% to its cyclical bottom. Have we got anywhere near a 26.4% decline in the S&P 500 in the last year? Of course not! How about even a 9% decline? You know it has not happened yet. I guess it may never happen again. <vbg> RtS

To: Kirk © who wrote (32534)	9/11/2006 6:12:46 PM
From: Return to Sender	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95615

Just in case anyone might think I'm totally ruling out the possibility that Kirk's guess is right that the market has already bottomed let me clearly state that I am not. We have already seen a correction of 8.1% in the S&P 500 this year. While this would be the smallest cyclical decline from peak to trough since 1942 (and the shortest duration) it is possible that when the market bottomed (S&P 500) in June of this year it may have formed a bottom for this cycle. Only time will tell and that's not a guess at all. RtS