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Technology Stocks : Lam Research (LRCX, NASDAQ): To the Insiders -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Proud_Infidel who wrote (5530)	9/12/2006 12:58:36 PM
From: Kirk ©	Respond to of 5867

Well, I believe the folks like iSupply and SIA were only predicting 0.7% order growth for Semicapx in 2007 and they should really know the best. I got tired of trying to track their estimates here home.netcom.com It is a lot of work and hardly anyone cares... Just 6 months ago I had a prediction from them on that page saying 2006 would be 10% growth... and I believe it is much higher than this... A good part of me thinks it is all just a game to increase volatility to remove money from the clueless who are "taught" to use stop losses or sell when the pain gets too great and buy Cramer's "safe stocks you can eat" crap.... then when they get all the small folks out who can be influenced by this nonsense, they turn the switch and go the other way... so tech and high growth estimates get excessive and PEs get over 40 even with good earnings... so they say buy, buy, buy as the smart money sells or takes profits.... to do it again in a few years. I'm pretty sure this is why my method seems to work... I ADMIT I can't call tops and bottoms... but I can see a good price when analysts hate stocks and I can see when insiders are selling despite everyone upgrading... Kirk

To: Proud_Infidel who wrote (5530)	9/12/2006 1:31:16 PM
From: Cary Salsberg	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 5867

RE: "...it is hard to believe they could be so ignorant (and wrong)..." I find it harder to believe in a god, but most people have no trouble doing so.

To: Proud_Infidel who wrote (5530)	9/12/2006 1:37:38 PM
From: etchmeister	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 5867

The game they play certainly stinks......it is hard to believe they could be so ignorant (and wrong) on their calls with all of the data inputs they have from around the world. Some times I wonder - perhaps their real clients get different info - we just get the stuff Yahoo et al decides to put out. DRAM pricing is on the roll for almost two quarters but not until 9/5/2006 we see a cluster of upgrades (3 since 9/5/2006). Usually upgrades make me nervous - fortunately the data confirms that DRAM business is strong. It would be nice having not to deal with analysts and just let the market run its own course.