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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Tommaso who wrote (9250)	9/13/2006 1:04:10 AM
From: Maurice Winn	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 219559

Quite right, <oil is refined into products that are burnt up and vanish forever, at least forever in the scale of human existence. Not like gold, or even like copper. You cannot recycle burnt hydrocarbons. So there is always less and less.That discovery in the Gulf cannot even be pumped for five or six years, and only then at great expense. > but a lot of the carbon can be recycled by collected it in El Matador's ethanol agricultural programmes. Americans are cutting back. Have you not seen the decline in SUV sales. That means SUVs that have been scrapped have been replaced by cute little Lexus hybrids, which use a fraction of a dirty great Hummer's gulping gas guzzler engine. People will save energy, one way or another. It's not actually very difficult. There is a vast amount of carbon and hydrocarbon fossil fuel lying around not far below the surface. There's sufficient for 100s of years. The whole greenhouse gas industry is one of ElM's wayo schemes, and there are swarms of beneficiaries. Al Gore is having a lot of fun with it, strutting around, making movies. There are megabucks flying in all directions and people love those megabucks. If greenhouse gas woes suddenly went away, like the Y2K bug, there would be a LOT of people who would suddenly have nothing to do and who would have to find a new cash flow source, which is usually annoying to do. Especially when it's gushing in the old scheme. Mqurice PS: Actually, <No government can legislate oil into existence. > yes they can. Change the tax laws and environmental laws and Resource Management Act laws and hey presto, oil pops into existence [arrives in a tank anyway, which is the same thing as far as a motorist is concerned].

To: Tommaso who wrote (9250)	9/13/2006 1:24:12 AM
From: JJJK	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 219559

"cannot even be pumped for five or six years" Exactly! From time to time the markets seize on some will of the wisp or another to in some degree justify a corrective move. The Chevron discovery in the Gulf is at this point a completely unknowable factor. The geologists involved simply do not know how small or large this find in fact is. Likewise the source information is completely unclear as to what the ultimate division of oil vs. gas will be. Also the circumstances of recovering this resource are of unknown difficulty and cost. What we do know is that the equipment involved in the drilling and the transportation of the product to market will be much more expensive than anything currently in production in the Gulf. In short it would seem that the significance of this discovery, while interesting, lies more in its serving as a pretext for justifying market action rather than a concrete factor with any immediate or definite future significance. We don't know that there is 15 billion barrels at the bottom as some suggest. Some folks do extrapolate this as a possibility. However possibility and probability are completely different bases for investing. My suspicion is that after the current correction in oil prices is over, this market's enthrallment with this discovery will for a long time be relegated to the waste bin of yesterday's news. JK

To: Tommaso who wrote (9250)	9/13/2006 2:50:15 PM
From: energyplay	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 219559

" No government can legislate oil into existence. " True. But he have a number of governments which have legislated oil out of reach. West Coast, Eastern Gulf of Mexico, ANWR, lots of Colorado - all have well known structures and either have some infrastructure in place or have at least part of the field near existing infrastructure. There are deposits offshore of North West Florida which could tie into the pipelines which are offshore of Alabama, the Alaska pipeline has spare capacity, and there is extenisive storage and refinery capacity from Los Angeles north to San Luis Obispo in California. Part of these resources could be brought on line in two to three years, not 5 to 10.