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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: tizztizz who wrote (69689)	9/13/2006 12:20:36 PM
From: John Vosilla	Respond to of 110194

Perhaps the techies types should be looking at the JDSU's and NT's of the world a bit more these days as it is probably the safest 'bet' of all. Do a search on many leaders of the last mania on SI to find those no one talks about anymore and be the contrarian is something more should ponder. If you are heavily invested in gold or oil and also betting against the consumer and homebuilders it hasn't been pretty lately. Do I think coastal housing cracks in a big way, recession is on the horizon and gold eventually goes to 2k? Yes, but I don't want to bet against mr market for being a year early and get decimated while I wait..

To: tizztizz who wrote (69689)	9/13/2006 12:36:27 PM
From: Mike Johnston	Respond to of 110194

Everyone is losing money ? That is not true. Goldman sachs is taking out billions from the markets. You want to make money? You have to be close to the printing press.

To: tizztizz who wrote (69689)	9/13/2006 12:38:40 PM
From: Paul Kern	Respond to of 110194

Nah. Don't be silly. We all turned on a dime and are raking it again by the minute. We're so busy totalling the take, tick by tick, that we don't have time to post.

To: tizztizz who wrote (69689)	9/13/2006 12:44:10 PM
From: Les H	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

that in itself could be construed as a contrary indicator...

To: tizztizz who wrote (69689)	9/13/2006 12:47:03 PM
From: russwinter	Respond to of 110194

Save that kind of crap for Yahoo finance, not going to fly here.

To: tizztizz who wrote (69689)	9/13/2006 1:59:47 PM
From: NOW	Respond to of 110194

does that surprise you, or is that observation somehow useful?

To: tizztizz who wrote (69689)	9/13/2006 2:18:57 PM
From: J_Locke	Respond to of 110194

I noticed the same thing, actually. The board was buzzing when gold was zooming over $700, and if fact I think it had the most posts ever right about the same time gold peaked. Now, quiet as a whorehouse on Sunday morning. A contrarian indicator? Personally, I've been somewhat blindsided by the liquidity onslaught from the FCBs and two coupon passes in three days by the fed. I find it amazing that they've been able to funnel liquidity where they want it - stocks and bonds - without it bleeding into oil and gold.

To: tizztizz who wrote (69689)	9/13/2006 2:58:51 PM
From: bond_bubble	Respond to of 110194

I dont think it is because of people losing money. For instance gold, oil etc has not fallen to 2004 prices - they have just fallen like 6-9 months low. I think, the general belief in this board is that the credit will deteriorate (and probably gold etc will go up). So, people used to post a lot of information when it was pointing to more credit deterioration. As Doug Noland has been saying, credit deterioration is going to take some time as the liquidity is still very high. I used to support Doug Noland's view and people like Mish, Uncle used to argue that Credit deterioration is here etc. and housing inventory was their evidence of credit deterioration. But no. All the coupon passes are all pointing to higher liquidity and "credit" worthiness of credit. I do think that the inflation, CRB index will go higher before credit bust. A downdraft in commodities merely implies the liquidity will grow more, increasing commodities demand...

To: tizztizz who wrote (69689)	9/13/2006 2:58:51 PM
From: bond_bubble	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

I dont think it is because of people losing money. For instance gold, oil etc has not fallen to 2004 prices - they have just fallen like 6-9 months low. I think, the general belief in this board is that the credit will deteriorate (and probably gold etc will go up). So, people used to post a lot of information when it was pointing to more credit deterioration. As Doug Noland has been saying, credit deterioration is going to take some time as the liquidity is still very high. I used to support Doug Noland's view and people like Mish, Uncle used to argue that Credit deterioration is here etc. and housing inventory was their evidence of credit deterioration. But no. All the coupon passes are all pointing to higher liquidity and "credit" worthiness of credit. I do think that the inflation, CRB index will go higher before credit bust. A downdraft in commodities merely implies the liquidity will grow more, increasing commodities demand...