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Strategies & Market Trends : Contrarian Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: bruwin who wrote (78)	9/13/2006 3:48:03 PM
From: fedman	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 4080

One of the problems with the past 12 months for HSOA is much of its business is Hurricane Katrina related. The funding is just getting spent and so it's a bit event driven. But you're evaluation criteria make sense and it remains to be seen if HSOA has all the business they claim. It's a toughie, no doubt.

To: bruwin who wrote (78)	9/13/2006 4:17:30 PM
From: jsabelko	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 4080

Bruwin, interesting as i do it a bit differently. For a stock I'm new to the first screen I do in my head is ev/ebitda using current QUARTER ebitda annualized. I want a number <9 to look further. If that hits I then look for seasonality, debt load, recent revenue and earnings growth, current forward earnings estimates. I try to keep it simple and ebidta/ev is my only "hard" criteria. I use most recent Q numbers as I generally look for small caps or turnaround stories and want to identify the situation early not several quarters into the process. Don't get me wrong, I'm not saying what is "right" or "wrong" just interesting how each of us do our initial screen. For HSOA, ebidta/ev is 8-9, seasonality is stronger 2nd half so that is in my favor as annualized 2Q, debt is minimal,recent growth in revenue and ebidta is very strong and forecast is strong. Based on this I'm now interested and started more thorough dd. joby